European air traffic to remain under 90% of pre-COVID levels in 2022: Eurocontrol

Airline traffic in Europe is expected to recover to 70%-90% of pre-pandemic levels in 2022, according to the European Organization for the Safety of Air Navigation (Eurocontrol), little changed from recent levels as COVID-19 travel restrictions continue to hamper the sector.

Last year saw a sustained partial traffic recovery in European airline traffic, starting at 64% of 2019 levels in January and rising to remain relatively stable at over 70% since the summer, helped by the introduction of COVID-19 vaccination certificates.

Airline traffic stood at 22% below 2019 levels in December, Eurocontrol said in a note dated Jan. 1.

"omicron triggered travel restrictions that constrained flights in the first half of December to 75%, but eased in the second half (81%) owing to the holiday period," Eurocontrol said. "The challenge for the first months of 2022 will be to stay close to the base scenario as countries ramp up booster campaigns and manufacturers look to modify vaccines to counter better omicron; progress on both will enable a progressive relaxation of travel restrictions."

Eurocontrol estimates that losses for European airlines in 2021 stood at Eur18.5 billion ($21 billion) with 1.4 billion-1.5 billion fewer passengers, overall, with the major airline groups operating 30%-64% fewer flights.

In the week to Jan. 3, the seven-day moving average of European flight traffic slipped to 79.6% of 2019 traffic levels, compared with 85.1% in the previous week, Eurocontrol data showed. That compared with a pandemic peak of 92.3% on Dec. 23 as people flew home for Christmas.

Full recovery

S&P Global Platts Analytics expects only "minimal improvement" in European jet fuel demand during the first half of 2022 compared with 2019 levels, with demand remaining one of the most vulnerable segments within European refined product markets.

European jet and kerosene demand is estimated to recover to average 1.4 million b/d in 2022, according to Platts Analytics, up from 831,000 b/d in 2021 but still below the 1.56 million b/d in 2019. Platts Analytics sees European jet demand fully recovering and surpassing 2019 levels in 2023.

Under its base-case scenario, Eurocontrol predicts a return to 2019 air traffic levels by the end of 2023.

"The risk that new or tweaked vaccines may be needed to tackle emerging COVID variants, or that governments will return to reintroducing lockdowns, travel restrictions or other measures, cannot be ruled out," Eurocontrol said.

Fuel efficiency

According to Eurocontrol, average airline fuel efficiency levels remained significantly higher in 2021, however, after many airspace restrictions were relaxed due to the reduced, post-COVID air traffic.

Excess fuel burn in the region, an operational indicator of fuel efficiency from take-off to landing, remained between 2.2% and 5% last year, well below the pre-pandemic rates of 7% to 9.7%, Eurocontrol said.

More than 1,200 airspace restrictions were relaxed last year which permitted aircraft operators to fly more direct flight profiles, saving airlines up to 26,000 nautical miles per day, Eurocontrol said.

"It is clear that actions taken during the pandemic to improve flight efficiency have enabled the excess fuel burn to remain well below the values experienced in 2019 before the pandemic," it said.

In a December 2020 study, Eurocontrol called for a re-organization of the European airspace and the deployment of new technologies after concluding that flights in Europe are using on average 8.6%-11.2% more fuel than the most efficient flights in the regional network.

At the time, it blamed route network constraints, the availability of airspace, and airspace users' routing choices.