IRENA's global RES outlook sees widening gap between rhetoric and action

London — The gap between rhetoric and action in global climate action policy has widened, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) said in a first global renewables outlook.

The agency's reference case (PES) sees CO2 emissions increase slightly by 2030 and then decline roughly to today's level by 2050, resulting in a global temperature rise of 2.5 C.

A scenario based on policies around the time of the 2015 Paris Agreement would result in continued strong annual emission gains and a temperature rise of 3 C or more in the second half of this century.

Only under a transition (TES) scenario would emissions fall enough to keen temperature rise below 2°C.

The report lays out pathways to decarbonization with a focus on the speed of wind, solar and storage deployment.

In the reference scenario the share of renewables in the global power mix rises to 38% by 2030 as solar quadruples to over 2,000 GW and wind doubles to over 1,400 GW.

Some 270 million electric vehicles would help store energy and balance the system.

Coal burn would fall while gas consumption would rise 41%. Oil demand would be stable to 2030.

The more ambitious transition scenario would require an additional $15 trillion in investment through to 2050, but ultimately save costs and create jobs, the report said.

"The European Green Deal, to take an existing example, shows how energy investments could align with global climate goals," IRENA director general Francesco La Camera said.

"The time has come to invest trillions, not into fossil fuels, but into sustainable energy infrastructure," he said.

IRENA: ENERGY TRANSITION PATHWAYS

Source: IRENA Global RES Outlook (2020)