European MMA prices drop as year-end nears; supply uncertainty, mixed demand outlook for 2025

European methyl methacrylate prices saw a significant decline in prices over recent months, particularly due to weak demand. While the market faced tight supply conditions in the summer, the constraints gradually eased through December.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, last assessed the DDP NWE MMA price at Eur1,920/mt Dec. 24, stable on the day and down Eur60/mt week on week, the lowest level since Platts started European MMA assessments on April 2.

Tight conditions in summer

During the summer, the MMA market faced extremely tight supply conditions, with many players sold out. This was a result of production constraints in key regions like China and South Korea, which affected imports to Europe, as well as supply disruptions in Europe. More specifically, major producers such as Trinseo and Roehm had shut their plants in the mid- to late summer months due to maintenance and feedstock supply disruptions, further tightening supply.

There has also been less import activity from Saudi Arabia, due to challenging logistics, including limited vessel space and availability, port congestion and high freight costs, causing shipment delays.

Since Mitsubishi ceased operations at its UK plant in 2022, the European market has become heavily reliant on imports. However, in 2024, imports from Asia were constrained due to high regional prices and steep freight costs, effectively closing the arbitrage opportunity.

While imports from China remained minimal, there were limited shipments from South Korea. Sources said that both South Korea and Japan had prioritized their domestic markets during this period.

European MMA prices hit Eur3,125/mt Aug. 8, the highest since Platts first started publishing the assessments April 2, due to substantially tight supply. The uptrend had started in late May to early June.

Despite subdued interest, the market remained supply-driven, participants said, while even if demand was picking up the impact on prices would be much higher.

Easing supply in September

Nevertheless, by mid-September, supply conditions began to improve due to incoming imports from Asia, driven by lower freight rates and Asian prices. However, the market remained sensitive to potential logistical issues and delays in shipments from Saudi Arabia.

Domestic production is already back online, but operating at lower rates considering the subdued appetite. In early autumn, at least 18,000 mt was imported to Europe from China.

Throughout this period, demand remained lackluster, with many players having pre-purchased material, particularly during the summer period for the upcoming months.

As prices began to decline in late November, market participants shifted their focus to destocking and contract negotiations for 2025, indicating a cautious approach to future purchases, willing to delay their contracts, as they expected a further price downtrend by the end of the year.

Uncertain outlook for 2025

Some sources expressed optimism about better preparation for 2025, emphasizing the importance of improved forecasting, setting realistic expectations, and learning from the issues faced in 2024, which could better equip market players for unforeseen disruptions or an increase in imports from China.

In addition, expectations were voiced of flat, low-level demand for the beginning of the year. However, some sources expressed optimism for a potential increase in demand during the first quarter of 2025, particularly in February onwards, although this expectation seems rooted more in hopes for improved economic conditions rather than clear signs.

Demand for January is "not too good," according to a player, who added that estimates would likely be delayed further.

Nonetheless, uncertainties remain. While multiple players anticipate improved supply in 2025, caution persists, as unexpected events such as shutdowns, labor strikes, natural disasters, or import delays due to port congestion and high freight costs could still impact the market.

Some market sources foresee the European market becoming increasingly dependent on imports in 2025, driven by an anticipated influx of Chinese material, increased production capacity in China, and subdued domestic demand there.

Several players also predicted an increase in spot activity compared with contracts in 2025, potentially driven by buyers struggling to secure their contracted material.

President-elect Donald Trump's decision on tariffs for next year will be a crucial factor that will determine how the market develops, sources said, along with Roehm's new MMA plant utilizing LiMA technology in Bay City, Texas, which is set to start commercial production in the first quarter, and may shift export dynamics.