China likely to continue PVC exports to India despite antidumping duty implementation

China's polyvinyl chloride exports to India will likely continue even after India implements an antidumping duty on PVC imports, market sources said Nov. 6.

On Oct. 30, India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry announced a preliminary decision to impose antidumping duties on suspension-grade PVC imports originating in, or exported from, China, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and the US. These duties will be levied in a range of $51-$339/mt, depending on the origin.

Some market sources said the decision is still "preliminary", allowing market participants to file comments to the government by the end of November before a final decision is made.

The imposition of these duties could reduce the competitiveness of Chinese PVC in the Indian market, according to market sources, thus Chinese suppliers may need to find alternative destinations for their PVC cargoes, such as the Middle East or Africa.

Over January-September, China exported 1.048 million mt of PVC to India, approximately 54% of its total export volume of 1.939 million mt, the latest data by Chinese Customs showed. Due to the large export quantity, Chinese PVC is typically priced $20-$30/mt lower than other Asia-origin materials.

The antidumping duty on Chinese PVC is specifically set at $82-$167/mt, according to the ministry.

"It would be difficult to find a partner who can take PVC like India," said a market source. "Chinese supplies would continue exporting PVC to India after the dumping duty [becomes] effective."

India is the largest PVC importer globally, importing 2 million-3 million mt of PVC annually.

Another source said the market may remain "status quo" as long as local Indian prices increase by an equivalent of $50-$100/mt to match the prices of China-origin PVC after the antidumping duty is applied. So far, market sources said India's domestic market remains stable.

On Nov. 5, Platts assessed PVC unchanged day on day at $685/mt FOB China for ethylene-based PVC and $675/mt FOB China for carbide-based PVC, S&P Global Commodity Insights data showed. The FOB China PVC price benchmark was seen lowering on the day, with carbide-based PVC reportedly hovering around $660-$670/mt FOB China, according to market sources.