Russia sets wheat export quota at 10.6 million mt for Feb-June

Russia has approved a wheat export quota of 10.6 million mt for the period Feb. 15-June 30, lower than previous estimates at 11 million mt.

Traders said the quota was "more than enough," given the country is expected to export around 17 million-20 million mt over December-June.

Russia is forecast to export 45 million mt of wheat for the 2024-25 marketing year (July-June), down sharply from 54.7 million mt last season, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data.

This decline in exports is attributed to adverse weather conditions, including frosts and droughts in early May, which reduced the country's production for the 2024-25 season to 81.6 million mt, around a 10 million mt drop from last year, according to Commodity Insights data.

The export quota approved on Dec. 20 has been set at zero for other grains such as barley, rye, and corn. In comparison, the last quota, for February-June 2024, was set at 28 million mt, without a specific breakdown for different grains.

These export quotas are part of Russia's strategy to exert tighter control over the agricultural sector amid concerns about domestic inflation. The ministry set the export allocations among companies based on each company's export share the previous year. As such, the leading exporters receive the largest share of the export quota. Traders expect the list of companies and percentages allocated next year to be shorter.

The quota coincides with the government's weekly recalculation of export duties. For Dec. 25-Jan. 12 it is set at Rb4,769/mt, ($47.41/mt), up 15% week on week. The export duty is calculated as a percentage of the difference between a base price and the average export prices on an FOB basis during the 60 days preceding the day of calculation. For the latest calculation, that average is $240.40/mt.

Platts, part of Commodity Insights, assessed Russian wheat 12.5% at $234/mt on Dec. 20, up $1 on the week.