INTERVIEW: Myanmar targets 3 mil mt rice exports in FY 2025-26 on China demand: MRF Chairman

Myanmar is targeting 3 million metric tons of rice exports in the fiscal year 2025-26 (April-March), buoyed by strong Chinese demand, tariff advantages in the EU and ongoing sustainability reforms, U Ye Min Aung, chairman of the Myanmar Rice Federation, told Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, in an interview at the Bharat International Rice Conference on Oct. 30.

"In the first six months, we have already exported 1.2 million mt, meeting our target," Ye Min said. "For the next six months, our goal is 1.8 million mt, which means about 300,000 mt each month. As we enter the main harvest season from October to January, we expect to accelerate shipments to meet the full-year target while staying competitive in the market."

This ambitious target reflects a more optimistic projection from the MRF compared with the US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service, which anticipates Myanmar will export 2.2 million mt of rice in the marketing year 2025-26 (January-December), marking an increase of nearly 5% from 2.1 million mt exported in MY 2024-25. The upward revision by the USDA is attributed to increased sales to core markets, particularly China, as highlighted in their latest report.

Government collaboration, export zone expansion

While Myanmar's rice sector operates primarily under private ownership, the government supports policy development and farmer welfare. "In Myanmar, there's no government procurement, national reserves, or warehouses; all are managed by the private sector," Ye Min said. "The government mainly supports farmers, while the MRF acts as the guardian of the rice industry."

The government's National Export Strategy identifies rice, rubber, fisheries, pulses and beans as key growth sectors. To strengthen the value chain, the MRF is collaborating with the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Commerce to introduce initiatives such as contract farming and export zones.

Myanmar's new export zone initiative is designed to promote traceability and sustainability by linking farmers directly with exporting companies. "Farmers may use chemical fertilizers, but no pesticides or insecticides," Ye Min said. The scheme targets 600,000 acres this year, of which 360,000 acres are already active, with plans to expand to 2 million-3 million acres. "Once fully implemented, it will become the largest sustainable rice zone in the region," he added.

Focus on premium, regional varieties

Myanmar is prioritizing high-value rice grades such as Pawsan, a fragrant variety similar to Indian aromatic rice, and developing a Geographical Indication system to preserve its identity. "We are promoting Pawsan rice in Japan, Dubai, and Europe, and soon in Malaysia and Singapore," Ye Min said.

The country is also capitalizing on the growing Chinese demand for long-grain and short-grain varieties. "Chinese buyers prefer Sin Thu kha and Kayinma rice, which are among our most popular varieties," Ye Min said. "Next year, we are doubling the production of Sin Thu kha to boost exports to China and Indonesia."

Production outlook: favorable weather, modest gains

Myanmar's weather conditions have been favorable this season, supporting a 2%-3% increase in production year over year. "Good rainfall and healthy water reserves mean we will see slightly higher yields in 2025-26," Ye Min said.

"However, competitive pricing remains a challenge. In the eyes of consumers, low prices are good, but for farmers, it's not a welcoming situation," he said. "We are encouraging farmers to switch to premium varieties like Sin Thukha, which can provide 10%-20% higher margins."

The FAS USDA projects that Myanmar's rice production will reach 12 million mt in MY 2025-26 (January-December), up less than 1% from 11.9 million mt in MY 2024-25.

Currency volatility weighs on competitiveness

Myanmar's rice exporters continue to face challenges from exchange rate fluctuations and trade restrictions. The Central Bank of Myanmar mandates that 25% of export earnings be exchanged at a fixed rate of Myanmar kyat 2,100/$1, while the remaining 75% can be sold at market rates or used for imports.

"Exporters who also import are more competitive than those who only export," Ye Min said. "That's why we encourage exporters to diversify into imports; it provides better access to foreign currency and helps manage costs."

The kyat's appreciation since early October has also impacted profit margins. "Currency movements are adding to the cost pressures, especially when buyers are demanding discounts in a softening global price environment," he added.

Market diversification, tariff advantage

Myanmar's rice exports remain concentrated in China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations markets, while it faces tough competition from India in Africa. However, the country enjoys a strategic edge in Europe under the EU's Generalized Scheme of Preferences, which removes import duties for developing countries.

"The European market buys around 500,000-600,000 mt of rice from Myanmar annually," Ye Min said. "Meanwhile, China is negotiating with our government to raise the rice import quota from 200,000-250,000 mt to 400,000 mt."

Sustainability and future vision

Looking ahead, Ye Min emphasized MRF's long-term goal of building a sustainable, competitive, and traceable rice supply chain. "Myanmar's rice sector has made remarkable progress since liberalization in 2008," he said. "We're now focused on restoring our former glory by improving quality, embracing sustainability, and ensuring farmers benefit from our export growth."

Platts assessed Myanmar 5% white rice at $320/mt FOB FCL, unchanged week over week on Oct. 31.

Platts assessed Myanmar B1 & B2 broken rice at $270/mt FOB FCL, up $10/mt week over week on Oct. 31.