Damages on crops, animal farming operations likely in the Philippines post storm Trami

Tropical storm Trami, which swept through northwest Philippines in the week to Oct. 25, is estimated to have caused significant damage to local corn crops and animal husbandry industries, market sources said.

However, the full impact to the supply and demand fundamentals of Philippines' feed grain market is still being assessed, as sources note that grain storage and terminals were relatively unaffected.

“At this time, we’re still checking on the impact of the storm particularly on the crops,” said a trade source based in Manila.

A Singapore-based grains trader added, “Bicol (Visayas region) was devastated. The damages are still being assessed but expecting local crops, livestock, and aquaculture to be affected.”

Meanwhile, a second Singapore trader noted that although the “corn crop might be damaged, I believe their warehouse stock should be quite safe. As of last week and today, there are no calls for indication yet.”

Corn output shortfall likely balanced against H2 2024 feed demand

The outlook on feed grain demand in the Philippines remains uncertain as already sluggish feed demand, partially due to the ongoing African Swine Fever (ASF) situation, overshadows supply tightness from crop damages.

“It is possible that [feed wheat] demand will be lower for some buyers, but overall, we estimate that it will be consistent with previous demand,” added the same Manila-based trade source.

A source from the Philippines’ feed milling industry said: “The feed mill industry continues to experience sluggish production rates, with a 20%-30% lower operation rate. Additionally, some buyers have already fulfilled their [feed wheat import] demand for December to early February arrivals, so I think there could be significant impact on feed wheat import demand in the near term.”

Another source noted that second-crop corn production was already expected to be lower before the tropical storms hit, and coupled with slow feed demand in the country, the damages caused by Trami on feed grain supply and demand may be smaller than expected.

The market is now bracing for storm Kong-Rei to approach northern Philippines as early as Oct. 30, according to the country’s national weather agency, which could wreak further damage in the form of rain and floods, even though the storm is not expected to make landfall.