SAF to account for 12% of global aviation energy demand by 2050: DNV report

Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) are set to see significant growth starting in the 2030s, eventually comprising 12% of the global aviation energy demand by 2050, according to the 2024 Energy Transition Outlook published by Norwegian classification organization DNV on Oct. 10.

This surge is to be driven by stringent decarbonization policies and increasing consumer demand for sustainable travel options.

The EU's Renewable Energy Directive (REDIII) and the RefuelEU Aviation initiative are pivotal in promoting SAF adoption, setting binding targets for renewables in transport energy. Despite current cost challenges, with SAF being more expensive than fossil kerosene, production is rapidly increasing.

The report said that SAF production doubled between 2022 and 2023 and is expected to more than double again in 2024.

DNV expects hydrogen, as e-fuels, to gain momentum in aviation during the 2030s. This will be driven largely by cost and availability factors, but also by a market ramp-up for non-conventional fuels created by policy mandates like the EUs Renewable Energy Directive (REDIII) and RefuelEU Aviation initiative’s binding 2030 targets for renewables in transport energy use.

However, the report highlighted that e-fuels are about four to five times more expensive than fossil kerosene, so the widespread adoption of e-fuels will depend on a significant increase in renewable electricity production to bridge the current cost gap.

In aviation, the DNV report expects e-fuels to surpass pure hydrogen by a three-to-one margin, making up 12% of the fuel mix by 2050. This is largely due to e-fuels being compatible with all types of flights as drop-in replacements.

In contrast, the report highlighted that pure hydrogen is mainly suited for short to medium-haul flights because of its lower energy density and the need for extensive storage, which requires aircraft designs with higher per-passenger costs.

In the long term, liquid hydrogen may be used for longer-haul jet turbines, but the fuselage must be redesigned to make space for the added volume of hydrogen. Altogether, DNV projected pure hydrogen and hydrogen-based e-fuels to account for approximately 16% of aviation energy use by 2050.

In the maritime sector, ammonia and methanol will also see increasing uptake from 2030. These two fuels are expected to make up 37% of the maritime energy demand by 2050.

The change in aviation is led by ambitious programs in the Middle East, particularly in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, that aim to integrate SAF into their decarbonization strategies. Regional biofuel-blend mandates in Europe and North America are also expected to strengthen, further encouraging SAF uptake.

Aviation is expected by 2050 to consume almost 60% of biofuels used in transport, driven by decarbonization goals and limited alternatives in the aviation and maritime sectors. Sustainable production will rely on biomass sources like agricultural byproducts and forestry residues, addressing environmental concerns and ensuring long-term viability.

However, challenges remain, particularly concerning land-use changes and the associated carbon emissions.

“Ensuring the sustainability of biofuel production is crucial to avoid creating a 'carbon debt' that could undermine the environmental benefits of biofuels,” DNV said.

The report added that currently, almost all bioenergy use in the transport sector is in road transport (94%), primarily in the form of blends with gasoline and diesel with a minimal amount in gaseous forms like biomethane.

The report also highlighted that currently, biofuels dominate road transport, but projected bioenergy demand from road transport will decrease by 58% by 2050 driven by ongoing electrification efforts and less demand for blended fossil fuels.

This trend is further supported by intensified competition for biomass sourcing for other transport sectors. According to the report aviation is set to take the biggest share of bioenergy for transport at 48%, followed by maritime at 32%.

Aviation’s higher share stems from decarbonization policies and consumer-push that has led many airlines to set tough targets for switching to SAF.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed SAF production costs in Southeast Asia at $1,723.72/t on Oct. 11, rising $28.05/t from the previous day.