India could produce 8-10 million mt per year of SAF by 2040: report

India has the potential to produce 8-10 million tons per year of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) by 2040, requiring investments of $70-85 billion to achieve this target, according to a new report by Deloitte India.

According to the report, this projection aims to reduce carbon emissions by 20-25 million mt each year.

The report highlights that India, currently holding a 2-3% share in the global aviation turbine fuel (ATF) market, is optimally positioned to become a leading exporter of SAF.

Based on exceeding the projected domestic demand of 4.5 million mt needed for a 15 percent blending mandate by 2040, India can serve both local and international markets.

Additionally, the report said that using agricultural residues as SAF feedstock could boost farmers’ incomes by 10-15%, offering a sustainable alternative to the harmful practice of crop burning while also expected to generate 1.1 to 1.4 million jobs across the value chain and significantly cut the nation's crude oil import bills by $5-7 billion annually.

The abundant supply of 230 million mt of agricultural residue will be a cornerstone for SAF production. This surplus will support the production of second-generation ethanol, a key component in the Alcohol-to-Jet technology pathway for SAF manufacturing.

Moreover, municipal solid waste and used cooking oil will also play vital roles in producing SAF, with promising potential in alternate feedstocks such as sweet sorghum, seaweed and industrial waste as technology advances.

India’s favorable geographical position, coupled with competitive cost structures, could see the country become a pivotal player as global SAF demand surges. However, the successful adoption of SAF will necessitate collective efforts from all stakeholders and require a structured demand roadmap akin to Renewable purchase obligations.

The country has set indicative SAF blending targets for international flights: 1 percent by 2027 and 2 percent by 2028. However, there are no mandates for domestic flights yet.

Globally, countries are taking ambitious blending mandates. The EU, for example, has laid a detailed roadmap until 2050 for using bio-SAF and synthetic SAF. Additionally, the EU’s regulations also specify feedstock acceptable for SAF production. These regulations are more stringent than the International Civil Aviation Organization guidelines. For example, while ICAO allows agriculture crops as feedstock for SAF, the EU mandates only using feedstocks that are not being diverted from the food value chain.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed SAF production costs in Southeast Asia at $1,708.45/mt Oct. 8, up $3.64 from the previous assessment.