US soybean 2019-20 stocks down 42% on year: USDA

New Delhi — US soybean stocks for the 2019-20 marketing year (September-August) was seen down 42% year on year to 523 million bu, the Department of Agriculture said Sept. 30.

The USDA's report came as a surprise to agriculture analysts who were predicting the soybean ending stocks at 576 million bu, against the Platts Analytics forecast of 600 million bu.

As a result, November soybean futures went up 35 cents/bu to $10.30/bu within 20 minutes of the USDA's report, which went public at 11 am CDT, Sept 30.

US soybeans estimated domestic crush went up 4% year on year to 59.06 million mt in 2019-20 on higher demand for soybean meal in the country's livestock market, which was a major factor in lower soy ending stocks.

The US became a major meat supplier to China, especially pork, in 2019-20 as the Asian nation's pig herd was decimated by the African swine fever epidemic.

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While the soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 141 million bushels, down 47% from a year ago, the off-farm stocks, at 382 million bushels, are down 41% from last September, the USDA said.

Indicated disappearance for June-August 2020 totaled 858 million bu, down 2% from the same period a year earlier, the report said. Indicated disappearance refers to the usage of soybean stocks, such as crushing.

The 2019 soybean production was revised down 333 thousand bu from the previous estimate to 3.5 billion bu, the USDA said.

Planted area was unchanged at 76.1 million acres, but the harvested area was revised to 74.9 million acres, the report added.

The 2019 yield, at 47.4 bushels/acre, is unchanged from the previous estimate, the USDA said.