Shipping’s net zero goals at risk as green fuel supply lags: industry body

The global shipping industry currently faces a widening gap between the surging demand for green fuels needed to meet the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) net zero ambitions for 2050 and the limited supply and scalability of biofuels, the American Bureau of Shipping or ABS Chairman and CEO Christopher Wiernicki said at the London International Shipping Week Sept. 15.

"Quite frankly, achieving net zero for shipping by 2050 looks like a wildcard," Wiernicki said, adding that LNG and biofuels are mission-critical to any success and should not be overlooked, over-penalized, or discarded in the Net Zero regulation.

ABS, which provides classification and certification services in the maritime industry, said that the challenge with using biofuels is not technology but the finite and contentious supply of sustainable feedstocks.

"While advanced biofuels can be a key part of the solution, there is simply not enough sustainable biomass or waste oil globally to power the entire maritime sector without creating negative consequences such as indirect land-use change (ILUC) or impacting food security," ABS said in its Sept. 15 outlook report titled Vision meets Reality.

While biofuel use has grown by 73% during 2019-2023, it still accounts for only 0.73% of the overall fuel use in the industry, ABS said.

Source: American Bureau of Shipping, International Maritime Organization

Pointing to a mismatch between decarbonization targets and the slower growth in the production of green fuels, Wiernicki said that the signals shaping investment - regulation, fuel pricing, penalties, availability, scalability - are moving at different speeds.

Shipping accounts for approximately 3% of global GHG emissions.

The IMO is set to meet in October to formally adopt the Net-Zero Framework, or NZF, which was approved in April 2025.

The NZF framework includes a goal of reaching net-zero GHG emissions from international shipping by or around 2050, supported by interim reduction targets of at least 20% by 2030 and at least 70% by 2040.

Biofuels are currently the cheapest of all green fuel alternatives, ABS said.

Compared to very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO), biofuels carry a price premium of around 1.5–3 times, while green methanol is 2–4 times higher and green ammonia and hydrogen are 3–8 times higher.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed Singapore-delivered B24 low-sulfur biobunkers at an outright price of $673.1/mt, equivalent to a premium of $205/mt over the Platts benchmark FOB Singapore Marine Fuel 0.5%S cargo assessments on Sept. 15.