Gevo North Dakota SAF plant gains from delayed South Dakota project; CCS outlook cloudy

US biofuels producer Gevo is pressing ahead with plans for a smaller-scale sustainable aviation fuel facility in North Dakota, even as its larger project in neighboring South Dakota remains on hold.

The South Dakota plant, known as AtJ60, was designed to produce 60 million gal/year of SAF from bioethanol using alcohol-to-jet technology. But the project has stalled over disputes about a proposed carbon capture and sequestration pipeline, which would transport captured CO2 from the facility. While the future of AtJ60 is uncertain, the engineering and design work completed for the plant has been repurposed to accelerate development of the smaller AtJ30 project in North Dakota.

The reuse of these design elements has shortened timelines for AtJ30, which is also expected to have a more manageable capital cost than its larger counterpart. The project remains tied to a pending decision from the US Department of Energy on a $1.63 billion loan guarantee, critical to achieving financial close.

Gevo has signalled it will not proceed with AtJ60 without clarity on the CCS pipeline's future.

CEO Patrick Gruber said, on Gevo's Aug. 12 earnings call, that the company has "the technology and the designs" to move forward but needs certainty on financing and CCS infrastructure before breaking ground.

Beyond the two SAF plants, Gevo is also advancing a renewable natural gas project in Iowa and developing SAF capacity at a recently acquired ethanol facility in North Dakota.

Gevo company projects US jet fuel demand will rise by over 2 billion gal/year in the next decade, requiring dozens of ATJ facilities to balance ethanol supply and meet market needs.

Gevo said 180 brownfield ethanol sites in the US could be candidates for conversion, alongside new greenfield developments globally. The company holds more than 300 patents covering its SAF technology, ethanol-to-olefins processes, and carbon tracking systems.

Biofuels performance and CFPC impact

For the first half of 2025, Gevo reported positive net income and adjusted EBITDA, supported by its low-carbon ethanol and co-products business, renewable natural gas production and sales of Clean Fuel Production Credits.

Low-carbon ethanol operations produced 28 million gallons, 93,000 mt of feed, and 8 million lb of distillers corn oil, contributing $18 million to operating income and $7 million in adjusted EBITDA ($26 million including CFPC sales).

Corn fiber ethanol production reached 2 million gal/year, qualifying for cellulosic D3 RINs and near-zero carbon intensity scores.

Gevo's RNG facility produced about 172,000 MMBtu in the period, contributing $2 million in operating income and $3 million in adjusted EBITDA ($5 million with CFPC sales).

The company expects the CFPC credit to generate more than $10 million/quarter through 2029 unless extended by legislation.

In July, Gevo signed an agreement to sell its 18 million gal/year Agri-Energy ethanol plant in Luverne, Minnesota, for $7 million, with closing expected by year-end.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy assessed USWC SAF-Jet Fuel Spread on April 13 at 491.2 cents/gal, up 4.59 cents/gal day on day.