USDA drops beef import projections amid rising tariff concerns

The US Department of Agriculture revised its outlook for US 2026 beef imports to 4.95 billion lb Aug. 12, down 6.1% year over year and 7.5% from its July estimates amid US tariffs concerns.

USDA US beef import estimates for 2025 were at 5.274 billion lb, down 103 million lb, or 1.9%, from July's estimates for MY 2025, but up 639 million lb, or 13.8%, from MY 2024, the USDA data showed.

"Beef imports for 2025 are lowered to reflect reported trade data through the first half of the year, as well as reduced shipments due to higher tariff rates, particularly from Brazil," the USDA said. "The reduction is carried into beef imports for 2026."

US import volumes have been dropping due to the tariffs on Brazil, "but [it] remains a critical watch point for us," according to Caleb Hurst, beef analyst with S&P Global Energy.

"The trade relationship between both countries [US and Brazil] is vital, and we are optimistic that an agreement could be reached before the beginning of the year," Caled added. "Nevertheless, this remains a significant concern until it materializes."

Currently, US tariffs for the top 5 suppliers of imported beef into the US are as follows: Australia 10%, Canada 35%, Brazil 76.4%, Mexico 25%, and New Zealand 15%. US tariffs on beef from Canada and Mexico are not applied, as they are covered by the USMCA trade agreement.

Import prices

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed 90CL beef CIF US at $6,923/mt, or $3.14/lb, for a 30-to 60-day shipment period Aug. 12, compared with $6,724/mt, or $3.05/lb, July 11, the date of the previous WASDE report.

Exports

USDA US beef export estimates for MY 2026 were at 2.545 billion lb, down 0.8% from July's estimates, 5.1% and 15.4% from the estimates for MY 2025 and 2024, respectively.

USDA US beef export estimates for MY 2025 dropped to 2.682 billion lb, down 1.7% from July's estimates and 10.8% from the MY 2024 estimates.

"The beef export forecast is reduced for 2025, reflecting tighter domestic supplies," the USDA said. "The reduction is carried into lower exports for H1 2026."

"For 2026, beef production is lowered due to reduced expected placements in H2 2025, as well as reduced cow slaughter in 2026," the USDA added.

The USDA had increased its export estimates in its previous WASDE report published July 11, an increase with which beef analysts at Energy disagreed then, as they saw a drop in production and uncertainty in purchasing countries due to the undefined tariffs.