US soybean market skeptical China will follow through on Trump’s purchase request

The US soybeans market rallied Aug. 11 thanks to a social media post from President Donald Trump asking China to quadruple its imports of US soybeans, though US market participants remained skeptical of purchases on that scale taking place.

Platts assessed SOYBEX FOB New Orleans for September shipment at $405.37/mt day over day, $8.72 up from the previous business day, and FOB Gulf for September shipment at 92 cents/bu over the X soybeans futures contracts, unchanged from the previous assessment.

A jump in the Chicago Board of Trade futures led to the increase, with November (X) futures climbing 23.75 cents to 1,011.25 cents/bu Aug. 11. Trump's post went live Aug. 10.

"China is worried about its shortage of soybeans," Trump posted on his social media platform, Truth Social. "Our great farmers produce the most robust soybeans. I hope China will quickly quadruple its soybean orders. This is also a way of substantially reducing China's Trade Deficit with the USA. Rapid service will be provided. Thank you President Xi."

Trump's post came hours before the tariff truce with China was to expire, which to some sources signaled that agriculture was at the center of the negotiations, though sources saw a quadrupling of orders as unlikely. Media reports said the tariff deadline would be extended.

'Way too many soybeans'

"Notably, China has bought zero US soybeans, so quadrupling it would keep it at zero," senior analyst Jack Larimer at S&P Global Energy said. "I don't see significant risk from this. There is a chance that the US and China agree to a buying agreement, but China would not buy more than 35 million mt of US soybeans. That was their maximum in the last trade agreement, but Brazil has way too many soybeans to reach that level again."

A source in the exports market said: "We have yet to see how he's going to achieve that. From this post we could say that negotiations are advancing, but him saying China soybean inventory is tight isn't true."

A source in the CIF New Orleans market echoed that view.

"China doesn't have a 'shortage,' so I genuinely don't know what he's talking about," the source said. "Their state soybean stockpiles are still full, and South America is providing pretty much everything they currently need, though basis is getting more expensive. If he's asking them to quadruple their normal purchases, that's also ridiculous."

Sources in the Chinese market told Platts Aug. 8 that "buying interest has shifted solely to South American origins soybeans." Reportedly, as of Aug. 5, all of the total open demand at 8.5 million mt for September shipment had been covered, according to industry sources, while 41% of the total open demand at 8.3 million mt for October shipment has been covered.

Another source in the exports market said that Trump "making half-baked demands isn't going to sway China too much. They know Trump will be gone in less than four years and there are plenty of soybeans in the world. If Argentina and Brazil beans are cheaper, that's what they will buy."

"There is no one holding their breath that we are going to quadruple soybean exports to China," a second source in the CIF NOLA market said. "Still might be one step closer to a trade deal, which might include some vague agriculture purchase promises."

US corn exports to China plummet 98.8% on year

US corn exports to China have slid 98.8% year over year as of August 2025, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture. This downturn follows the Chinese government's directive in September 2024, which urged traders to reduce maize purchases and local consumer demand, alongside the establishment of a tariff rate quota of 7.2 million mt for 2025. Importers exceeding this quota will likely face tariffs of over 65%.

USDA data showed that during marketing year 2024-25, which runs from September to August, US corn exports to China totaled 32,724 mt by July 31, a stark contrast to the 2.805 million mt exported during the same period in the 2023-24 marketing year.

"We saw 7.2 million mt and thought it was unlikely, considering China had been importing like 20 million mt of corn since 2020," Mary Kate Porath, corn analyst at S&P Global Energy, said. "But here we are. Very slow pace."

In China, the summer corn harvest has reached the market, driving prices down to Yuan 1,880-1,900 ($260/mt) and removing any interest in importing corn, according to a Chinese broker source, who said a shift in policy was needed to create any chance of corn imports.

In MY 2023-24, China was the fourth leading destination of the corn exports, but for MY 24-25, it is ranked 39th, USDA data showed.

"China has slowed imports of corn from all countries, not just the US," Porath said. "The government has consistently stated its intention to become more self-reliant when it comes to agricultural production."