Center-South Brazil H2 July sugar production expected to decrease 10.2% on year: survey

Sugar production in the key Center-South region of Brazil is expected to total 3.089 million mt in the second half of July, down 10.2% year on year, an S&P Global Platts survey of 12 analysts showed Aug 9.

Of the analysts surveyed, the sugarcane crush estimate ranged from 45.3 million mt to 48.9 million mt. The average estimate was for a total cane crush of 47.0 million mt, a 7.5% drop year on year.

"The third frost event for the 2021-22 harvest in the Center-South region which occurred during the second half of July added additional stress on proper cane growth," said S&P Global Platts Analytics. "The negative impact on cane production from multiple frosts are still underway and present further downsides to cane availability. The revised Center-South Brazil 2021-22 cane crush stands at 530 million mt, with total sugar production at 33.1 million mt."

The proportion of cane used for sugar production is expected to be 47.0%, down from 47.9% a year earlier. Although Brazilian producers were taking advantage of the recent high prices of hydrous and anhydrous ethanol, long-term expectations are for mills to continue to maximize their sugar production, given the increased profitability of sugar production over ethanol production.

Platts assessed hydrous ethanol ex-mill Ribeirao Preto converted into raw sugar equivalent at 17.68 cents/lb on Aug. 6. The October NY11 sugar futures contract settled Aug. 6 at 18.68 cents/lb, providing a 1.00 cent/lb premium to hydrous ethanol in raw sugar equivalent.

Recoverable sugar per ton of sugarcane, or ATR, is expected to be 146.6 kg/mt, a decrease of 1.0% year on year.

Total ethanol output from sugar cane is expected to be 2.18 billion liters, a decrease of 5.5% year on year.

Hydrous ethanol output was expected to be 1.28 billion liters, according to the average of the analysts' responses to the survey. This would be a decrease of 19.4% year on year. Anhydrous ethanol output in H2 July was expected to be 902 million liters, an increase of 25.3% year on year, according to the survey.

Total ethanol output from corn is expected to be 124 million liters, an increase of 13.8% year on year. Hydrous ethanol output was expected to be 86 million liters, a decrease of 2.3% year on year, and anhydrous ethanol output in H2 July was expected to be 38 million liters, an increase of 84.4% year on year.

Industry association UNICA is expected to release its official production figures in the upcoming days.