EU wheat production set to rebound in MY 2025-26 despite dryness in key growing regions

The EU's wheat production is likely to rebound in the marketing year 2025-26 (July-June), although the output recovery is expected to be uneven due to dryness in key growing regions, market analysts said.

Diverse weather conditions across the bloc have resulted in a mixed production outlook. Ongoing dryness in northern and Central Europe -- especially in major producers such as France, Germany, and even the UK -- has negatively impacted yield potential. Crop conditions in these regions continue to fall short of expectations, dampening hopes for a full recovery.

"It's [EU wheat output] not going to be a perfect bounce back," said a market analyst. "We've seen a larger sown area but yields probably won't be spectacular due to the persistent dryness in key producing regions."

As of June 9, 70% of French soft wheat was rated in good to excellent condition, according to FranceAgriMer data June 13, a slight increase from 69% in the previous week.

In contrast, the southern and eastern parts of the EU have benefited from more favorable rainfall. Countries including Spain, Romania, and Bulgaria are on track to deliver strong harvests this season, supported by improved soil moisture and better growing conditions.

Despite the differences, total EU wheat production is expected to reach 135.6 million mt in the MY 2025-26, up from 120 million mt in the previous year, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights analysts' forecast. Meanwhile, the USDA's projections stand at 136.6 million mt, up from 122 million mt in MY 2024-25.

Export outlook

Production optimism is bolstering expectations for an increase in wheat exports in MY 2025-26 compared to the previous year. "We also expect a recovery in exports from the EU," said a market expert.

Commodity Insights has forecast EU wheat exports at 33.5 million mt, up from 26.3 million mt in MY 2024-25, while USDA sees exports at 34.5 million mt, up 30.2% year over year.

Additionally, traders from Eastern Europe believe that the end of the EU-Ukraine free trade deal will enable them to increase grain exports within the EU.

"The EU's reimposition of tariffs on Ukraine will allow us to supply more of our grain to the EU," a wheat broker said.

The EU reinstated pre-war duties and quotas on Ukrainian agricultural goods as of June 6, following nearly three years of tariff-free access. The temporary suspension of duties, introduced in June 2022 to support Ukraine's economy during wartime, officially ended on June 5, 2025. However, discussions are ongoing between Brussels and Kyiv to establish a new, long-term agreement.

According to the European Commission, Ukraine's share of EU wheat imports was about 62%, and corn imports were about 57% in MY 2024-25.

Demand prospects

Demand for EU wheat is anticipated to remain stable in its primary export market—the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)—in MY 2025-26, according to market sources.

Morocco, in particular, is experiencing a second consecutive poor wheat harvest, leading to expectations of continued strong import demand. "The crop is not good again this year, so we do expect relatively high imports into Morocco," an analyst said.

Wheat demand in the broader Middle East is likely to remain strong.

Meanwhile, the EU's decision to reintroduce wheat import quotas on Ukraine, capping volumes at 1 million mt, down from 4.5 million mt previously, has the potential to reshape trade flows. "MENA buyers may take advantage of competitive offerings coming out of that region," the analyst added.