RINs, RVO prices rise nearly 30% in two days, impacting jet fuel prices

RINs complex, D4, D5, and D6 Renewable Identification Numbers rose nearly 30% in the last two trading sessions following the release of the US Environmental Protection Agency's proposed biofuel blending volumes for 2026 and 2027 compliance years.

EPA released a proposal June 13 to sharply increase the amount of biofuels US refiners must blend with gasoline and diesel in 2026 and 2027 and halve the value of foreign feedstocks in the RINs market.

Within these requirements, in 2026, the EPA is targeting 15 billion gallons of conventional renewable fuels, like ethanol, and 9.02 billion gallons of advanced biofuels – including 5.61 billion gallons of biomass-based diesel, a large increase over the Biden administration's 2024 and 2025 volumes for the fuel.

High RVO increases RIN demand, and the limit on RINs generation from foreign feedstock restricts demand, a bullish signal for RINs prices.

D6 RINs, the most liquid RIN, settled at 120.50 cents/RIN on June 16, up 27.50 cents or 29.6% from June 12. That is the highest current-year D6 RINs level since Sept. 15, 2023, when it was assessed at 126.25 cents/RIN. The nature of the nested structure placed downward pressure on D4 RINs, up 28.5% in the last two trading sessions.

Prices might continue to feel this upward pressure in the following days, as the proposed RVO was set above market expectations of 5.25 billion RINs.

Jet fuel prices pressured by strong RVO

The US jet fuel benchmark fell to an 18-month low on June 16 as higher RINs and elevated domestic production weigh on prompt prices.

The US jet fuel benchmark — US Gulf Coast jet for Colonial Pipeline — was assessed at NYMEX July NYMEX ULSD minus 21.95 cents/gal on June 16. That is down by 3.70 cents/gal in the last two sessions to the lowest prompt differential since Dec. 15, 2023, when the grade was assessed at a 23.00 cents/gal discount.

US jet prices have historically had an inverse relationship with the RVO.

"Moving on the RVO for sure," a US jet trader said June 16.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, current-year Renewable Volume Obligation calculation rose to 17.0245 cents/gal, 10.41% day over day, reaching a 21-month high.

"RVO is insane," a second US jet trader said June 16.

US jet prices are also drawing pressure from higher supply levels, in part, because higher RVO values provide an incentive for domestic refiners.

"Rising blending obligations and reduced RINs supply," a third US jet trader said June 13. "No more RINs for importing renewables. Trump is trying to force domestic production of feedstock."

US jet fuel production rose to an 11-month high in the week to June 6, according to the latest Energy Information Administration data.

"RINs have skyrocketed," a fourth US jet trader said June 16.