Strong demand lifts US 2025 beef exports, increased competition weighs on pork: WASDE

The US Department of Agriculture on June 12 revised its outlook for US 2025 beef exports to 2.7 billion lb, down 9.82% year over year but up 1.7% from its May estimates citing continued "strong demand from key export markets," while projecting its pork outflows to fall 2.34% on year to 6.94 billion lb, down 1.55% from the May estimates on increased export competition.

The USDA also increased its projection for 2025 beef imports to 5.18 billion lb, up 11.9% on year and 2.26% higher on the month on strong imports from Oceania and South America as well as robust domestic demand for lean processing beef, while pork imports were projected at a 3.75% reduction over the year to 1.1 billion lb, about 1.37% lower on the month, according to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

"We know from what was shipped overseas imports [for 2025 beef] will be massive," a market participant said.

US beef export estimates for 2026 are projected at 2.47 billion lb, down 8.8% and 17.7% from the estimates for 2025 and 2024, respectively.

US beef import estimates for 2026 were at 5.025 billion lb, up 1% from May estimates, but down 3.1% from 2025, the USDA data showed.

"Nonfed, cow and bull, production levels are at the lows now and will be stable to slightly higher in 2026," Kevin Coburn, Director of meat and livestock analysis for S&P Global Commodity Insights said. "That's likely what is driving the import decrease from the USDA in 2026. Albeit more than 5 billion lb is still a massive number."

"If nonfed production does what we think it will, lean trim import volume should be steady to slightly lower next year," Coburn added. "The question is, will the US be more amenable to imported cut items due to rapid declines in fed beef production over the next 12-18 months. If that were to happen, then imports could grow mildly."

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed 90CL beef CIF US at $6,548/mt, or $2.97/lb, for a 30- to 60-day shipment period on June 11, compared with $6,460/mt, or $2.93/lb, on May 12, the date of the previous WASDE report.

Reduced slaughter weighs on beef output

The USDA projects 2025 beef production at 26.42 billion lb, down 2.31% on the year and 65 million lb lower on the month "on reduced steer and heifer slaughter in the second quarter and reduced cow slaughter for the remainder of the year," the report said.

For 2026, the USDA sees output declining 4.1% on year to 25.34 billion lb, up 0.54% from the May estimates. "Beef production is raised primarily on higher feedlot placements in the second half of 2025 and early 2026, which are expected to result in higher steer and heifer slaughter for 2026," the USDA said.

The Department projects ending stocks at 570 million lb in 2025, down 5.32% on the year, and 550 million lb in 2026, 3.5% lower on the year.

Total consumption in 2025 is projected at 28.93 billion lb, up 7.75% on the year, while consumption in 2026 is seen falling 3.5% on the year to 27.91 billion lb, the USDA said.

Pork production to see a marginal increase

The USDA left its 2025 pork output projection unchanged relative to last month at 28.01 billion lb, up 0.85% on the year.

Meanwhile, pork output in 2026 is seen rising 1.3% on the year to 28.38 billion lb, the USDA said.

The Department projects US 2026 pork exports at 7 billion lb, down about 0.75% on the year and 1.96% lower from the May estimates on account of continued export competition.

Pork imports in 2026 are projected at 1.14 billion lb, a decrease of 35 million lb over the preceding year.

Similarly, pork ending stocks are projected at 425 million lb, down 10 million lb from 2024, but were seen recovering to 435 million lb in 2026.

Total consumption in 2025 is projected at 22.17 billion lb, up 1.4% on the year, while consumption in 2026 is seen increasing 1.5% on the year to 22.51 billion lb, the USDA said.