Italian rice prices diverge as Arborio falls, Indica rises ahead of harvest

Italian rice markets are experiencing contrasting price movements as the current season nears its end, with Arborio varieties declining sharply while Indica rice continues to strengthen, reflecting divergent supply-demand dynamics.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed Arborio 5% at Eur1,445/mt ex-works on June 6, a decrease from Eur1,750/mt ex-works on Jan. 24. In contrast, Indica prices have steadily increased from Eur850/mt ex-works on Jan. 24 to Eur905/mt ex-works by June 6. The fluctuations in price are attributed to various factors, including the recent unfavorable harvest conditions and changing demand dynamics.

Market participants said that the last harvest season faced challenges due to heavy rains, which negatively impacted paddy quality. This situation compelled millers to procure more paddy to achieve the same quantity of milled rice, consequently driving up ex-works prices at the start of the year.

According to an Italian trader, "The rise in Indica prices was primarily due to the limited availability of high-quality Indica rice." As per Platts data, the price has increased by Eur55/mt over the six-month period. A trader also noted, "There are cheap Indica rice from Spain, but it won't affect the Italian Indica."

Conversely, the Arborio market is facing a decline in demand. One broker said, "The limited availability of Arborio is overshadowed by its higher price," leading to decreased buyer interest. Furthermore, as Arborio is typically exported globally, its offseason status has created a bulk demand for freshly harvested Arborio rice, expected to peak from late September to early October. According to Platts data, prices have decreased by Eur305/mt over the past six months.

Sowing update

According to reports from the Ente Nazionale Risi, sowing operations for the 2025 rice season have been successfully completed, with favorable conditions and ample water availability promoting good crop development. A 3% increase in the total rice cultivation area is anticipated, with Arborio cultivation projected to grow by 15% in areas like Pavia and Milan.

A miller noted, "It is very early to say how it will be in the coming harvest; as of now, all is looking good."