Pre-monsoon showers damage Indian rice paddy, kharif outlook still unclear: sources

Above-normal pre-monsoon showers damaged the current rabi rice paddy in India and slowed the harvest of the summer crop paddy, however this is unlikely to have a huge impact on prices amid slow demand, sources said June 3.

While the rainfall has provided relief from India's hot and humid conditions, many exporters expressed concerns about its effects on the current crop and exercised caution when predicting the monsoon's impact on the upcoming kharif crop outlook.

"Monsoon arrived 15-20 days early this year, with predictions of 90% chances of above-normal rainfall for most parts of India," Nitin Gupta, Senior Vice President at Olam Agri, said. "The situation has improved since April, with a well-distributed monsoon and over 20 states expecting 105% of average rainfall, leading to high water storage levels."

India's Meteorological Department had forecast on April 15 a 59% chance of an above-normal 2025 southwest monsoon, with a start date of May 27, five days earlier than the typical June 1 start, the US Department of Agriculture said in a report released May 30.

"Despite good early indications, it is too early to predict the overall monsoon outlook for the upcoming kharif crop, especially with flooding in the northeast and central Maharashtra," Gupta said. "The months of June, July, and August are critical, and dry conditions can become a concern amid global warming."

The market was already concerned about the current crop due to pre-monsoon rains in April and May, Gupta added.

"The wheat crop quality has seen some damage and discoloration, and in Chhattisgarh, the yield for the current rice crop has declined, and Basmati paddy production numbers are also not in line with market expectations," Gupta said.

Indian paddy area sown for the summer crop stood at 3.586 million hectares as of May 30, out of the total paddy average coverage area of 3.80 million hectares, up 15% from the previous year, according to the Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare's latest data.

"The summer crop is not doing well because of the pre-monsoon showers," Mukesh Jain, President of The Rice Exporters Association Chhattisgarh, said. "The yield of the summer crop is only 71%-74%, whereas millers are getting a better yield of 78% from Food Corporation of India's old crop paddy."

Jain said that, for the next crop season, the monsoon around June that will set the tone for rice production for that period.

Kharif outlook to be determined

However, a Delhi-based exporter was looking at other factors to determine the outlook for the kharif crop.

"Pre-monsoon showers don't indicate that early sowing is possible for the paddy for the upcoming kharif season, as other factors are also there, such as availability of fertilizers and water level in farms," the exporter said.

Mirroring similar sentiments, a trader from a multinational company said it was too early to determine the impact of pre-monsoon showers, as sowing for the kharif crop has yet to start.

"The true effects of weather on the upcoming kharif crop production will become evident only after sowing is completed," the trader said. "Given last year's bumper harvest in India, which has resulted in higher carryover stocks, even if the forthcoming crop falls short by 15-20 million mt, it is unlikely to significantly affect the market, especially since current export demand remains relatively slow."

Although pre-monsoon showers have impacted the current crop's harvest and caused some delays, this has not led prices to increases, as overall export demand in bulk remains subdued, the trader added.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed India parboiled 5% rice prices at $373/mt FOB on June 3, $7/mt higher on the week, while Indian white rice 5% was assessed at $377/mt FOB, down $1/mt on the week.

India is forecast to export 23 million mt of rice in MY 2025-26 (October-September), 6% lower year on year, while the country's rice production is estimated at 142 million mt for the marketing year, down 3.4%, according to Commodity Insights data.