Thai Hom Mali Rice prices hit 6-month high on tight supply, US demand

The prices of Thai Long Grain Fragrant Rice Hom Mali 100% Grade B have surged to their highest level in more than six months, driven by dwindling supplies and increased US demand, with market participants expecting further price increases in the coming months.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the Thai Hom Mali 100% Grade B rice at $1,084/mt FOB FCL on May 26, up by $125/mt month over month. The price was last higher than this on Oct. 25, 2024, at $1,090/mt FOB FCL.

The price rally comes as US buyers accelerate purchases during a 90-day tariff suspension period, creating additional demand pressure on already tight supplies of the premium fragrant rice variety, which is harvested just once annually.

"This is a once-a-year harvest, so with limited supply and heightened buying interest from the US, prices are expected to keep increasing," said Wanniwat Kitireanglarp, deputy secretary general of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, during the Thailand Rice Convention 2025.

Market participants at the convention reported that Thai Hom Mali rice prices are likely to rise beyond current offers of around $1,100/mt as the market contends with limited availability until the next harvest arrives in November-December.

Several sources noted that Thai exporters are actively pushing sales during this period, which, combined with aggressive stocking by American buyers amid the 90-day US tariff suspension, is adding upward pressure on prices.

"From now until November–December, we expect prices for Thai Hom Mali 100% Grade B rice to continue rising due to tight supply and strong demand from the US," a Thai-based rice exporter told Platts. "The 90-day pause on US tariffs has prompted American buyers to accelerate purchases and stock up, further tightening the market."

The rice exporter noted that around October 2024, prices reached as high as $1,300/mt FOB FCL. Currently, offers are around $1,090/mt, with expectations of a steady upward trend in the coming weeks.

Thailand's overall rice export forecast for the marketing year 2024-25 (January-December) stands at 7.10 million mt, representing a significant 28.2% decline year-over-year, according to Platts data.