Potential global trade shift supports US chicken prices

US boneless skinless chicken breast prices maintained their 2025 high of $2.79/lb May 23, supported by growing global uncertainty following cases of bird flu in Brazil.

The first cases of bird flu were detected at a breeding farm in Montenegro, Rio Grande do Sul as confirmed by the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock May 16. This was the first recorded outbreak on a commercial farm in Brazil and resulted in major chicken importers such as China and Mexico to immediately restrict shipments.

Even prior to the bird flu outbreak in Brazil, US boneless skinless breast meat had risen to the highest price level since July 2022. The weighted average price for boneless skinless chicken breasts was shown at $2.77/lb for the week ended May 16, according to US Department of Agriculture data.

The bird flu situation in Brazil did not provide an immediate push to higher US prices but provided additional demand support to an already strong market. Mexico accounted for 16.3% of Brazilian boneless skinless breast export volume through April 2025, which represented 78% of Mexico's total chicken imports from Brazil, according to Brazilian export data.

US producers were monitoring the situation but saw no immediate chance to sell into Mexico.

"Most importing countries will likely shift the ban down to a state or 'county' level, so the window of opportunity should be only in the near term," a source said. "Unless outbreaks get more spread out in Brazil."

High US prices remained the biggest limiting factor to prevent US from gaining market share on exports to Mexico.

"US prices for white meat are still high versus Brazil, there is no chance for US boneless skinless breast," an exporter said. "But that is just at this moment, if the Brazil bird flu remains for a long time we will see US BSB coming to Mexico around $2.50/lb, I think."