USDA forecasts beef imports to decline in 2026 amid global supply constraints

The US beef and veal import forecast, in-carcass-weight equivalent, for the first quarter of 2026 was at 1.375 billion lb, down 107 million lb, or 7%, compared to the first quarter of 2025, the US Department of Agriculture said in its last Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report.

USDA total US beef import estimates for 2026 were at 4.975 billion lb, down 97 million lb, or 2%, from 2025 estimates, but up 340 million lb, or 7.3%, from 2024, the USDA data showed.

The decrease in the forecast for 2026 was "due more to global supply constraints than demand for beef in the United States," the USDA said in the report, which was released after the market closed May 16.

"Cow slaughter is expected to continue falling in 2026, sustaining the need for imported lean beef trim to mix with fat trimmings from domestic slaughter," the USDA said. "However, global supplies are not expected to expand substantially in 2026, limiting the potential for further year-over-year growth."

"Additionally, tariffs, including those associated with tariff rate quotas, TRQ, will constrain beef imports to some degree," the USDA also said. "Therefore, the annual beef import forecast is 4.975 billion lb, which would be a slight decrease year over year."

"Imports are expected to be front-loaded in the first quarter as countries rush to fill the TRQ when it resets in January." The USDA said.

"US beef imports in March were the third highest monthly import on record, behind January 2024 and January 2025. This surge was likely motivated by trade uncertainty preceding the tariff announcements in April," the USDA also said. "First-quarter imports from nearly every major beef supplier were higher year over year, with the largest increases coming from Brazil and Australia."

Prices

CIF US prices for imported lean beef trimmings climbed 1% in the week ended May 16, supported by lower domestic production and following sharp declines in late April and early May due to uncertainty on how the US tariffs will affect retail demand.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed 90CL beef CIF US at $6,526/mt, or $2.96/lb, May 16, compared with $6,460/mt, or $2.93/lb, May 12.

Platts 90CL beef CIF US assessment, which doesn't include the tariffs, has dropped 4.2% since April 9, when 10% US reciprocal tariffs went into effect, but has risen 9.6% from year-ago levels, supported by limited domestic supply.

"Domestic 90CLs pricing is perking back up into the $380s/cwt this week, and buyers will soon be focused on summer plans, which tend to have more focus on grinds, combined with production outlook," Kevin Coburn, director of meat and livestock analysis for S&P Global Commodity Insights said. "There is still potential to see domestic 90s near $400/cwt this summer."

"Grinder margins have improved from March/April as the grind market has seen a significant lift in recent weeks, while raw material [costs have] lulled," Coburn also said. "Should be supportive at least short term as well."