CS Brazil H2 April sugar production expected to drop 50% on year: survey

Sugar production in the key Center-South Brazil region is expected to total 769,400 mt in the second half of April, a decrease of 49.5% year on year, an S&P Global Commodity Insights survey of 10 analysts showed May 9.

"Expectations are running high that the cane crush should be the lowest since 2012 for the fortnight," according to S&P Global.

Of the 10 analysts surveyed, two large trading houses estimated the total cane crush would be between 20.0 million mt and 25.0 million mt. The average estimate was for a total cane crush of 21.26 million mt, a 28.3% drop year on year.

The proportion of cane used for sugar production is expected to be 33.6%, down from 44.5% a year earlier. Brazilian producers were expected to take advantage of the recent high price of ethanol during the early stages of the harvest, but long-term expectations are for mills to maximize their sugar production during the second half of the harvest.

Recoverable sugar per ton of sugarcane, or ATR, is expected to be 112.8 kg/mt, a decrease of 6.9% year on year.

Platts assessed hydrous ethanol ex-mill Ribeirao Preto converted into raw sugar equivalent was at 19.13 cents/lb on May 9. The July NY11 sugar futures contract settled May 9 at 18.66 cents/lb, a 0.47 cents/lb discount to the hydrous ethanol price expressed in raw sugar equivalent.

Total ethanol output from sugarcane and corn is expected to be 1,071 million liters, a decrease of 17.6% year on year.

Hydrous ethanol output was expected to be 867 million liters, according to the average of the analysts' responses to the survey. This would be a decrease of 9.6% year on year. Anhydrous ethanol output in H2 April was expected to be 223 million liters, a decrease of 34.5% year on year, according to the survey.