26 Apr 2022 | 14:07 UTC

CS Brazil H1 April sugar production expected to drop 56% on year: survey

Highlights

Sugar's share of H1 April cane crush expected at 28.3%: analysts

H1 April hydrous ethanol output seen down 27.8% on year: survey

Sugar production in the key Center-South Brazil region is expected to total 279,000 mt in the first half of April, a decrease of 56% year on year, an S&P Global Commodity Insights survey of 10 analysts showed April 26.

"The start of the 2022-23 harvest should witness the lowest cane crush since the 2014-15 harvest," according to S&P Global's Platts Analytics. "The below average cane crush in 2014-15 and current 2022-23 harvests were both caused by below average rainfall during the crop year."

Of the 10 analysts surveyed, two large trading houses estimated the total cane crush would be between 7.5 million mt and 8.0 million mt. The average estimate was for a total cane crush of 9.47 million mt, a 39.6% drop year on year.

The proportion of cane used for sugar production is expected to be 28.3%, down from 38.7% a year earlier. Brazilian producers were expected to take advantage of the recent high price of ethanol during the early stages of the harvest, but long-term expectations are for mills to maximize their sugar production during the second half of the harvest.

Recoverable sugar per ton of sugar cane, or ATR, is expected to be 108.76 kg/mt, a decrease of 0.8% year on year.

S&P Global's Platts assessed hydrous ethanol ex-mill Ribeirao Preto converted into raw sugar equivalent was at 22.36 cents/lb on April 25. The July NY11 sugar futures contract settled April 26 at 18.88 cents/lb, a 3.48 cents/lb discount to the hydrous ethanol price expressed in raw sugar equivalent.

"At the beginning of the harvest Center-South mills will be focusing on ethanol production, which is currently paying a premium over sugar," said Platts Analytics.

Total ethanol output from sugar cane and corn is expected to be 539.4 million liters, a decrease of 27% year on year.

Hydrous ethanol output was expected to be 454 million liters, according to the average of the analysts' responses to the survey. This would be a decrease of 27.8% year on year. Anhydrous ethanol output in H1 April was expected to be 76 million liters, a decrease of 29.9% year on year, according to the survey.

CS Brazil Cane Production Data – 1H April 2022 (as of April 16)

Category Unit Survey Platts UNICA (2021-22) Y-O-Y** var. Vol. y-o-y**
Cane crush (million mt) 9.47 9.60 15.67 -39.50% -6.2
ATR (kg/mt cane) 108.76 108.60 109.63 -0.80% -0.87
Sugar output (thousand mt) 279 298 633 -55.90% -354.1
Ethanol total (million ltr) 539 589 736* -26.70% -196.6
Hydrous output (million ltr) 454 481 628* -27.70% -174
Anhydrous output (million ltr) 76 108 108* -29.60% -32
Sugar Mix (%) 28.30 30.00 38.70 -26.90% -10.4
Ethanol Mix (%) 71.80 70.00 61.30 17.10% 10.5

*corn ethanol included

Sources: S&P Global Commodity Insights Pre-Report Survey of Analysts Results, UNICA.

**Year-on-year change compares S&P Global Commodity Insights Survey against UNICA's figures for 2021-22

Editor:

James Leech