US soybeans production to fall in next marketing year: USDA

The US Department of Agriculture expects a decline in the number of soybean-planted acres in marketing year 2025-26, driven by more favorable conditions for corn and increasing competition from Brazilian soybeans.

Aaron Ates, USDA's senior feed grains analyst, said during the USDA's 2025 yearly Agricultural Outlook Forum on Feb. 28 that the US market is currently more inclined to corn, something that can be seen in the correlation of futures prices between both commodities.

"If the ratio of these prices is below 2.3, we take that as a signal that the market is demanding or calling for more corn," he said. "If above 2.3, they're calling for more soybeans.

"So, if you look at the monthly averages of these prices starting in September, this ratio began to fall below 2.3, signaling to us that the market is calling perhaps for more corn and less soybeans."

Initial data presented by USDA's chief economist Seth Meyer on Feb. 27 during that same event showed lower planted acreage for soybeans in 2025-26, down 3.1 million acres to 84 million. On the other hand, corn planted area is forecast at 94.0 million acres, up 3.4 million.

US farmers are facing increasing competition from Brazilian soybeans.

The country supplied 60% of beans imported by China, the largest soybeans importer worldwide, Luiz Garcia da Silva, president of the Brazilian port administration Portos do Paraná, told the forum.

"Brazil is harvesting a crop in 2025 that is expected to be 1.8 billion bushels larger or over 40% higher than the US harvest in 2024," USDA said in its Feb. 27 grains and oilseeds outlook.

"The US once held the title as the largest producer among major exporters but relinquished its title to Brazil about seven to eight years ago," Ates said. "Going forward, I think it will be interesting to see what the final crop size is in Brazil and Argentina for soybeans, as they do have the potential to impact planning decisions here in the US via price reactions."

The latest S&P Commodity Insights forecast for Brazil's current harvest is 173 million mt, while Brazil's agriculture agency Conab expects 166 million mt.

"The main obstacle for the US to reach its soybean goals is South American soybean production, which has been increasing by 20 million mt year-over-year," a Commodity Insights analyst said. "And the corn-soybean spread heavily favors corn (in the US)."

According to USDA's forecast, US soybean exports for the next marketing year are projected at 1.86 billion bushels, up 40 million from the 2024/25 forecast.

Soybean crush in the US is expected to increase 65 million bushels to 2.48 billion, and the soybean yield is forecast 1.8 bushels per acre higher to 52.5 bushels for 2025-26.