Brazilian cattle supply to tighten in 2025, but adverse weather delays herd rebuilding

After three years of consecutive growth, Brazil's cattle harvest is expected to contract in 2025 as the livestock cycle shifts toward herd rebuilding, according to the most recent preliminary data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, or IBGE.

This transition, however, has been delayed by adverse weather conditions and market dynamics that continue to push female slaughter rates higher.

Brazil processed a record high 39.1 million head in 2024, up 15% on the year. The surge was largely fueled by elevated female slaughter rates, which climbed to 46% of the total slaughter in 2024 from 37% in 2022. The increased disposal of heifers and cows has sustained record-high beef production in Brazil for the past three years, but signs of tightening supply are beginning to emerge.

S&P Global Commodity Insights analysts projected the ongoing shift toward female retention to reduce the 2025 cattle harvest by 5%, bringing total beef production down to approximately 11.5 million mt, which would be 5% lower than the 2024 total.

Despite expectations for a herd rebuilding phase, unfavorable climatic conditions have postponed the transition. Delayed rainfall and widespread wildfires in key cattle-producing regions during the third and fourth quarters of 2024 have strained pasture availability, limiting producers' ability to retain females for breeding. Without sufficient high-quality grass, many producers have opted to continue liquidating heifers and cows rather than risk lower reproductive performance.

This trend persisted into early 2025, with the data from Brazil's Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock showing that federally inspected female slaughter, or SIF, in January totaled 973,094 head, up 33% from December 2024 and up 5% from January 2024, reaching. The January 2025 volume was the highest for SIF processing since February 2024. As a result, the female share of total slaughter climbed to 41% in January 2025, up from 34% in December 2024.

If pasture conditions fail to recover substantially through the first quarter of 2025, female retention may continue to lag, prolonging the current phase of female liquidation.

By late February, pasture quality remained uneven across Brazil's key cattle regions. In the North, pest infestations have further hampered pasture recovery, prompting a flow of calves and heifers to the Center-South. Meanwhile, the central and southern regions have seen increased rainfall, but pasture conditions remain suboptimal for large-scale female retention.

The prolonged delay in the retention cycle raises concerns about cattle availability later in 2025 and beyond. If weather patterns do not shift soon, the expected contraction in supply could accelerate in 2026, potentially pressuring cattle prices to rise.

While the long-term outlook suggests a cyclical rebound, the pace of recovery remains highly dependent on pasture conditions and producers' confidence in rebuilding their herds.