Brazil's soybean exports surge in first-half February; China top consumer

Brazil, the world's top beans producer and exporter, shipped over 1.68 million mt of soybeans from Feb. 1-13, according to the country's foreign trade department Secex, likely supporting local oilseed prices.

That was sharply higher compared to 550,963 mt of beans exported in the first half of February 2021, the Secex report released Feb. 14 showed.

The bulk of Brazil's soybean exports in February were headed to China, the world's largest beans importer, according to the local traders.

In addition, Brazil's soybean harvest for crop year 2021-22 (September-August) has started well ahead of its typical schedule, which has also supported export volumes. The harvest in the states of Mato Grosso and Parana is almost three weeks ahead of last year's pace.

According to agricultural consultancy AgRural, the harvest reached 24% of the projected area of 40.4 million ha in Brazil through Feb. 10, as against 9% in the same period last year, when delayed planting and heavy rains impeded field activities.

Strong oilseed demand from China and steady harvest progress could translate into a sizable soybean shipment in February from the world's top beans supplier.

Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach 7.5 million mt in February, up 180% on the year, the country's grain exporters' association ANEC said Feb. 9.

The South American nation exported a record 86.1 million mt of soybeans in 2021, with 70% of shipments headed to China, the Secex report showed.

Supply slump in Brazil

According to Brazil's agricultural supply company Conab, Brazil is expected to export over 80 million mt of beans in 2022, down almost 5 million mt from previous estimates on severe and prolonged drought in the southern parts of the country.

The Brazilian soybean production could fall as low as 125 million mt, which seems a long way down from early season estimates of as high as 150 million mt, analysts said.

AgRural has already cut its crop year 2021-22 (September-August) output forecast for Brazilian soybeans to 128.5 million mt, down 17 million mt from estimates in November.

Another agricultural consultancy based in Sao Paulo, AgreSource Brazil, sees the Brazilian soybean output at 125 million mt as the southern states of the country remain parched.

It is widely expected that more agencies will follow suit and reduce their forecasts amid the prolonged drought in the southern parts of Brazil.

Soybean yield has declined in the three southern states and in Mato Grosso do Sul, where crops are under prolonged heat stress amid below-average rainfall throughout January, AgRural said. There was also a slight negative adjustment in output estimates in Mato Grosso, due to losses caused by heavy rainfall in the mid-north of the state, it said.

While rainfall is essential during the soybean crop planting and development, it stifles the harvesting progress as excess moisture in the oilseed is not ideal for storage and could accelerate crop decay.