UAE chicken leg quarter prices higher on US bird flu-linked export restrictions

Chicken leg quarter prices in the UAE climbed to Dirham 85-90/15 kg carton, equivalent to $1,633/mt, on Jan. 27, up from Dirham 75-80 on Jan. 24, according to a UAE-based trader Jan. 28.

The price hike follows supply disruptions from the US, where the federal Food Safety and Inspection Service export certificate restrictions related to bird flu have limited supply availability. The FSIS is a branch of the Department of Agriculture.

According to the trader, the restricted exports have pushed prices higher for full-container orders, leaving importers little time to adjust.

"Prices of CLQs are shooting up in the UAE due to restrictions of exports of chicken meat from the US," he said. "This will also affect griller [whole bird] prices locally."

The Middle East is the third-largest export destination for frozen chicken meat after China and Northeast Asia. Around 587,5000 mt of frozen chicken in 2024 entered the UAE, the region's largest importer. That includes 70,000 mt shipped from the US, mainly CLQs.

"Importers hesitated to buy earlier when local prices were lower, and now the costs have gone up," the trader said. The timing of shipments, which are expected to arrive near the summer months, is also a significant concern. "It's a difficult situation because no one wants to risk losses during a typically slower demand season," he said.

The UAE market remains highly uncertain as traders navigate fluctuating prices and tight supply conditions.

"The market have been relatively stable but there are a couple of high seasons in the Middle East that typically increase protein consumption and imports, particularly during Islamic religious events," a second trader said. "Ramadan, starting on March 1, will drive higher demand for beef and chicken until April 5. Later, Hajj and Eid al-Adha, beginning June 6, will have a similar impact."

US poultry losses

Data for the US shows a worrying rise in the number of broiler operations hit by bird flu over the past months, with the latest case reportedly being H5N9 in California. Over the past 30 days, the US poultry industry has lost 13 million birds (mainly layers, turkeys and broilers) to bird flu, either directly or through preventive culling, with close to 55% of broiler exporters from the country impacted by export certificates restricted, limiting supply for international exports, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights analysts.

Since the recent surge of outbreaks in the US, poultry exports to the UAE have been significantly impacted. In October 2024, exports fell 39.2% year on year, followed by an alarming decline of 61.7% year on year in November 2024.

Prices:

Platts USCM, the benchmark price for US chicken leg quarters FCA Savannah, was assessed at an $1,345/mt on Jan. 27, an increase of more than 17% over the last 30 days, related to seasonal trends and the supply challenges related to bird flu and export certificate restrictions.