Record 2025 soybean crush pressures Brazil soybean meal prices

Soybean crush in Brazil is expected to reach a new record in 2025, according to industry estimates, reflecting the anticipated higher soybean oil demand for biodiesel production and signaling ongoing pressure over soybean meal prices.

According to the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries, or Abiove, Brazil is likely to crush 57.10 million mt of soybeans in 2025, an increase compared to 55 million mt seen in 2024, as the country's harvest is also projected to reach a historic volume of 171.70 million mt.

Abiove's projection compares with a processing estimate of 57.50 million mt predicted by S&P Global Commodity Insights for 2025.

Subproducts

In addition to a record harvest, soybean crushing in Brazil, the world's largest producer and exporter of the commodity, is also expected to be supported in 2025 by increased demand for soybean oil for biodiesel production.

Soybean oil accounts for around 70% of all raw materials used in biodiesel production, with the mandatory blend to diesel expected to rise to 15% starting in March, up from 14% currently.

Abiove forecasts domestic consumption of soybean oil at 10.50 million mt in 2025, compared to 9.90 million mt last year.

In this context, Commodity Insights predicts the use of soybean oil for biodiesel at 6.87 million mt in 2025, up from 6.23 million mt in 2024.

Soybean meal supply

The increased soybean crushing aimed at soybean oil is expected to lead to a record production of soybean meal by Brazil, usually the second-largest exporter of this commodity, behind only Argentina.

According to Abiove, soybean meal production in 2025 is estimated at 44.10 million mt, an increase of 3.8% year on year. However, exports of the product are expected to decline slightly to 22.90 million mt from 23.14 million mt in 2024.

Domestic consumption is due to increase to 19.50 million mt, while 2025 ending stocks are pegged at near 4 million mt, almost doubling on the year.

Such an oversupply signals that soybean meal prices will remain under pressure throughout this year, as the values of the product, an important component of animal feed for poultry and pigs, are already hovering around the lowest levels since mid-2020.

Platts, part of Commodity Insights, assessed the price of soybean meal FOB Paranaguá at $316.58/mt on Jan. 20, a decrease of 22.5%, or nearly $100/mt, year on year. Platts assessments considers spot loadings.

Paranaguá is the main Brazilian port for soybean meal exports, serving as a national reference for the price of this commodity.