Commodity Tracker: 4 charts to watch this week

S&P Global Commodity Insights editors and analysts continue to see the impact of US tariffs as well as the Israel-Iran conflict on commodity markets. Meanwhile, Canada has shipped its first LNG export.

1. Japanese Q3 2025 aluminum premium dips 40.66% QOQ to $108/mt CIF Japan

What's happening? The quarterly aluminum premium contract over July-September was reported at $108/mt, plus London Metal Exchange cash settlement average of the shipment month, CIF Japan. The reported premium for the Q3 2025 MJP deals represents a 40.66% drop from the Platts Q2 2025 MJP assessment of $182/mt.

What's next? The increase in US aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% effective June 4 has led to reduced interest in exporting to the US, and an overall supply surplus in Europe and Asia. Asian aluminum premiums are unlikely to see support, according to market participants, given the increase in supply in the region amid the expected continued outflow of supply from the US into other markets, in addition to new volumes from Indonesia, alongside weak demand in Asia.

2. Rise of data centers sparks US cement demand

What's happening? The rapid expansion of US data centers is driving a significant increase in cement demand. Currently, there are 5,426 operational data centers in the US, and this number is expected to approach 6,000 by the end of 2027. Major tech companies like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta are responsible for about 25% of new data center projects.

What's next? Nearly 1 million mt will be required over the next three years, with 247,000 mt projected for 2025 alone, according to the American Cement Association. Despite this growth, challenges such as power limitations, regulatory hurdles, and labor shortages could hinder progress. Additionally, data centers are set to increase their share of national electricity consumption from 4.4% in 2023 to between 7% and 12% by 2028.

3. Turkish ammonia price rises amid shortage of Iranian cargoes

What's happening? The Platts CFR Turkey ammonia assessment soared 26% in two days, reaching $486/mt CFR June 25. The $101/mt rise was attributed to market uncertainties caused by the Israel-Iran conflict. With Iranian ammonia production halted and exports paused, buyers were forced to rapidly increase bids to secure cargoes for July shipment. Turkey is a major importer of sanctioned Iranian ammonia, and buyers have had to accept higher price levels from other suppliers, according to sources.

What's next? Market participants are awaiting the restart of Iranian production, which is thought to be imminent in light of the ceasefire. Recent sales have been labelled opportunistic, according to sources, and it is not clear if these levels are sustainable. Until Iranian exports resume, market players expect Turkish buyers will have to continue to pay up so they can compete with European importers.

4. Canada exports its first LNG cargo

What's happening? The Shell-operated LNG Canada project shipped its first cargo, just in time for Canada Day celebrations on July 1, marking the country's first LNG export and the start of a highly anticipated project designed to meet Asian demand. Tanker Gaslog Glasgow loaded at the LNG Canada terminal in Kitimat, British Columbia on June 30 and is estimated to arrive in Incheon, South Korea on July 20, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea. With the launch, Canada has joined the club of LNG exporting countries and opened its vast natural gas reserves to the global market. The shipment also stands to become the first LNG cargo shipped from the West Coast of North America since the Kenai LNG plant in Alaska stopped exporting in 2015.

What's next? LNG Canada's geographic position means that it enjoys a much cheaper shipping cost to key North Asian markets of China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. LNG Canada is looking for a future expansion that could double its capacity to 28 million mt/year, and the first cargo will trigger interest in Asian LNG importers to invest in the expansion.

Reporting and analysis by Louissa Liau, Lucas Sposito, Eniayo Adeniji, Mollie Gorman, Eric Yep