Commodity Tracker: 4 charts to watch this week

S&P Global Commodity Insights editors and analysts are closely monitoring the impact of the Israel-Iran conflict on various commodity markets and shipping routes. EU gas storage levels are lagging behind previous years, while renewable diesel prices in the region are rising amid market expectations of tight near-term supply.

1. All eyes on Iranian crude exports, trade routes amid Israel-Iran conflict

What's happening? Oil markets are watching for any impact on Iran's crude production, which was at 3.24 million b/d in May, as Iran and Israel exchange tit-for-tat missile strikes that have so far caused minor damage to oil and gas infrastructure in both countries. In a scenario where Iran's oil export infrastructure is damaged, Goldman Sachs analysts said Iran's oil supply could be reduced by 1.75 million b/d, leaving other producers to lean on existing spare capacity to meet global demand -- the bulk of which is held in the Gulf.

What's next? So far, the Strait of Hormuz is open and key oil export infrastructure is intact. Analysts have played down Iran's willingness to close the crucial transit chokepoint that carries 20% of global crude supply at this point, as well as Israel's appetite to go after Iran's primary export facility at Kharg Island. Any Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz would affect not only its own exports but also those of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar, potentially removing over 17 million b/d of crude oil from global markets. Only the UAE and Saudi Arabia have pipelines that can circumvent the strait.

Related factbox: Iran-Israel conflict escalation hits oil and gas infrastructure, threatens oil routes

2. European gas storage fill quickens but still well below past two years

What's happening? After a slow start to the EU's gas storage build in 2025, the pace of injection has improved so far in June, with sites now almost 54% full. However, storage levels are still well down on the past two years, raising concerns over how much gas will be needed over the remainder of the summer to reach storage filling targets.

What's next? Much will depend on whether the EU agrees to lower the filling targets under the extended gas storage regulation. The Parliament and Council are still in talks on how to introduce more flexibility around the targets, with a final trilogue scheduled for the end of June. A final agreement could see a floor of 75% filling target adopted.

3. ISCC clampdown sparks rally in HVO and HBE markets

What's happening? Bullish sentiment among market participants was observed in the week starting June 9, following the news that producers Preem, Viroque and Clover had received suspensions and withdrawals on their International Sustainability and Carbon Certification licenses for renewable diesel. RD prices in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub were 6.83% higher week over week. Platts assessed the RD-A outright price on June 13 at $2,100.25/mt, while RD-B was assessed at $2,087.50. Although the corresponding audit reports did not specifically outline the reason for the suspensions, market participants broadly agreed that these likely represented a broader clampdown on the part of the ISCC, following increased scrutiny of their audit procedures throughout 2025.

What's next? Market sources were divided on whether the suspensions posed a possibility of a physical short supply in Europe, or whether near-term bullishness is being driven by a more "emotional" reaction to the possibility of further suspensions from the ISCC. However, market sources expect further suspensions from the ISCC, which could amplify the current bullish trend for European RD prices.

4. France, Germany consider halting double-counting on biofuels

What's happening? France and Germany are considering halting double-counting incentives for biofuels under their revised proposals for the implementation of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) in 2026. Viewed as a fraud-prevention mechanism, this move is supporting sentiment in the renewable diesel and THG markets. Nothing official has been announced by the German government but an initial RED III draft proposal is expected to be released imminently. France released an initial draft proposal, specifically mentioning a 1.95% target for advanced biofuels by 2030 without the application of double counting.

What's next? If double-counting incentives are removed, market sources expect the THG market could turn bullish due to higher demand to meet rising greenhouse gas reduction obligations. The move could also stimulate renewed demand for fuels that are not currently double-counted, but that have high GHG savings. Instead of comparing THG values to biofuels that are eligible for double counting, the industry is likely to start looking at used cooking oil methyl ester/ rapeseed methyl ester as a comparator due to their high GHG savings. Biomethane may still be eligible for double-counting in Germany, as biomethane is produced within Europe, and fraud concerns are not as prevalent as with imported biofuels.

Reporting and analysis by Lauren Holtmeier, Stuart Elliott, Olly Wroe and Rebecca Li