Commodity Tracker: 5 charts to watch this week

The BRICS agreement to broaden energy cooperation is in focus, with the bloc preparing reports ahead of a leaders' summit in July. In LNG, eyes are on China's declining imports due to various factors, including high domestic gas production and pipeline imports. Meanwhile, Australia is likely to announce its 2035 emissions targets ahead of the 2025 UN Climate Change Conference in November.

1. BRICS agrees on new energy road map up to 2030

What's happening? The BRICS group, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia and Indonesia, agreed on a new energy cooperation road map up to 2030 during a meeting in Brasilia on May 19. Including Saudi Arabia -- which has yet to confirm membership -- the group accounts for 40% of global crude production and liquids demand. In a communique released after the meeting, BRICS criticized the impact of sanctions and trade restrictions on two priority areas of cooperation -- energy security and the energy transition.

What's next? BRICS is preparing reports on sustainable fuels and energy access ahead of a leaders' summit scheduled for July 6-7. It is planning to cooperate on biofuels, low-emission hydrogen and synthetic fuels. It is also focusing on financing the energy transition, building resilient power systems, and decarbonizing the oil and gas industry. However, concrete cooperation deals have faced challenges due to differing economic and geopolitical priorities.

2. China's LNG imports post sharp decline so far in 2025

What's happening? The who's who in the global LNG industry are gathered in Beijing for the World Gas Conference in the week of May 20. One of the key topics of discussion is the 23% decline in China's LNG imports in the first four months of 2025 compared to year-ago levels, and how volumes could move in the remainder of this year. The steep decline was due to many factors, including a record high domestic natural gas production, record high imports of pipeline gas from Russia and decelerating economic activity. There are concerns that the trade conflict with the US could slow GDP growth further and drag China's LNG imports even lower.

What's next? China's low LNG import levels so far this year have had a bearish impact on LNG prices and prevented any price surge, even as Asia's summer demand remains lukewarm and Europe is gradually conducting some gas inventory restocking. In January-April, production and transportation costs at China's inland liquefaction plants were lower than the Platts JKM spot deliveries on the coast, making spot LNG imports uncompetitive. Unless spot LNG prices fall significantly, to below $10/MMBtu, Chinese LNG imports will not find it feasible to enter the spot market, according to executives on the opening day of WGC in Beijing.

3. Australia likely to release 2035 emissions reduction targets ahead of COP30

What's happening? Australia is likely to announce its 2035 emissions reduction targets ahead of COP30 in Brazil this November. Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen stated that the targets will be developed based on advice from the Climate Change Authority, which is reviewing various emission reduction pathways and their impact on the economy. Australia's current commitment involves reducing emissions by 43% below 2005 levels by 2030 and achieving net zero by 2050. Renewable energy accounted for 43% of the electricity supply in Q1 2025.

What's next? The Australian government plans to increase renewable energy to 82% of the electricity grid by 2030, supported by the Rewiring the Nation plan and a A$20 billion fund for electricity transmission projects. Natural gas will continue to play a role, backing up renewables until renewable hydrogen becomes commercial. The Capacity Investment Scheme will hold auctions every six months until 2027 to accelerate renewable energy investments. Offshore wind projects will proceed in six zones across Australia, with Gippsland being the most advanced. Emissions are projected to decrease from 541.07 million mtCO2e in 2023 to 490.84 million mtCO2e by 2030.

4. South Korea's Arctic trade route potential gains traction

What's happening? South Korean presidential candidate Lee Jae Myung is championing the development of the North Asia-Europe Arctic trade route to enhance energy security and diversify oil trading options, saying the initiative could mitigate risks associated with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Arctic route is seen as an alternative to the Persian Gulf and could reduce shipping distances by 6,000 km-7,000 km, improving logistics for South Korea, Asia's third-largest crude importer.

What's next? The Arctic trade route proposal includes establishing a logistical hub in Busan and Ulsan, potentially activating the route in five to 10 years due to advancements in icebreaking technology. The Democratic Party is pushing for a special law to support this proposal, including creating an Arctic Route Committee and an Arctic Shipping Information Center. The initiative could open arbitrage opportunities for North Sea and Mediterranean crude, as the Brent/Dubai EFS spread was assessed at $1.56/b on May 15. Improving diplomatic relations with Russia is deemed crucial for the project's success.

5. Imports, weak demand keep European MMA prices on a downtrend

What's happening? Prices of methyl methacrylate in Europe continued to trend lower, falling to Eur1,630/mt May 19 -- the lowest since Platts began publishing MMA price assessments in April 2024. Increasing pressure from competitive Asian and Middle Eastern offer levels, weak demand and excess supply drove prices lower. Spot market activity remains limited because of buyer hesitancy amid economic uncertainty and a backwardated market. Traders and producers are accepting lower margins to secure volumes. MMA serves primarily as the precursor in the production of the thermoplastic polymer polymethyl methacrylate. It is also widely used in the formulation of acrylic surface coatings and adhesives.

What's next? European market players expect the downtrend in MMA prices to continue over the next few months as cheap import material begins to arrive. A destocking effect has also been observed in the market as players look to avoid high inventory levels during the typically quieter summer months. In China, prices were heard to have increased slightly due to a decline in domestic production capacity stemming from turnarounds and producers trying to reduce their inventories in line with a weak demand outlook.

Reporting and analysis by Rosemary Griffin, Eric Yep, Ruchira Singh, Phil Vahn and Luke Warren