2025 Seoul Market Briefing

• Refined Product demand outlook and what is happening with Chinese demand/exports?
• Dangote the disruptor or disruption at Dangote? What's the impact on the Atlantic market and Asia?
• Outlook for refining margins and crack spreads in Asia

Premasish Das, Head of Downstream Research - Asia, ME, Africa & CIS

• Global liquids supply, refined products demand outlook, and multi-dimensional energy transition through 2050
• Impact of energy transition on refining and crude oil in Asia
• Implications for Korea

Premasish Das, Head of Downstream Research - Asia, ME, Africa & CIS

Lee Yen Chong, SR Research Analyst 

• State of the industry
• Beyond 2030: Feedstocks in a transitioning market

Aaron Cheong, Associate Director, Feedstocks

• Regional Policy Update
• Impact on biobunker outlook from IMO development
• Global Biofuels Trade Flows
• Ethanol to SAF Outlook

 Wei Jun Chua, Principal Analyst, Biofuels

• Updates on disruptions in trade flows of oil, refined products and LPG
• Overview of the latest impact of sanctions and tariffs on liquid bulk and LPG shipping market
• US Trade Representative (USTR) Proposal implications

Charles Kim, Associate Director, Team Lead, LPG

The session will begin with an analysis of supply-side dynamics, highlighting recent capacity expansions and rationalization trends in PX and PTA, particularly within China. As we approach 2025, we will examine how the landscape is shifting explore the recent expansions in PX and PTA capacities, particularly in China, and discuss the implications of these changes on market stability. The presentation will also highlight the healthy demand from PET resin globally, driven by the growth of polyester applications, while also addressing the impact of trade tensions on supply chains. Finally, we will provide a market outlook, emphasizing the critical role of integrated complexes in navigating challenges and optimizing margins in a competitive environment.

Wing Zhang, Principal Analyst, Chemicals

In the dynamic landscape of Asia's chemical industry, methanol derivatives are emerging as a cornerstone of innovation and growth, with China at the helm of this transformation. This presentation will take you on a journey through the current trends that are shaping the methanol derivatives market, showcasing how China’s strategic initiatives are not only enhancing competitiveness but also setting the stage for a regional revolution. As we delve into the competitive advantages that Chinese industries are harnessing, we will uncover the ripple effects on neighboring markets and the broader implications for economic development across Asia. Join us as we explore the unfolding narrative of methanol derivatives in Asia and discover how China is driving this critical evolution in the sector.

Sophie Su, Sr, Principal Research Analyst, Methanol & Derivatives

Specialty chemicals, valued for their performance and functionality rather than composition, cater more directly to consumer needs compared to commodity chemicals. In recent years, the global specialty chemicals market has experienced volatility, influenced by geopolitical conflicts, trade tensions, supply chain disruptions, and fluctuating raw material prices. However, from 2025 to 2030, the market is poised for sustained growth and transformation leading by mainland China and other emerging markets. This positive outlook is driven by dynamic trends and ongoing investments in innovation and infrastructure, particularly in critical areas like energy transition, electrification, and digitalization. As we navigate this evolving landscape, specialty chemicals will serve as a crucial enabler of progress.

Maoshi Guan, Research and Analysis Director

Despite short-term oversupply issues, with continual wave of new capacity addition led by China, and tariff-driven trade shifts, the industry is poised for robust growth. Demographic and urban expansion, especially in emerging markets, will drive demand through 2050. With strategic project rationalization and long-term polyolefin growth surpassing global GDP, profitability can rebound at the middle of this decade.

Will Xu, Associate Director, Polymers

The presentation examines the outlook of Asia's olefin industry, focusing on the recovery from the recent downcycle and the strategic measures being taken to reshape the industry's future. Key topics include the impact of energy transition and the recovery prospect of the olefin industry, as well as tariffs' impact on the base chemical industry. It also discusses the global restructuring of cracker capacity and efforts to improve feedstock competitiveness through new ethane crackers. The presentation aims to provide a detailed overview of the olefin industry's trajectory, noting the opportunities and challenges ahead.

Paul Joo, Director, Olefins & Derivatives

• What factors are determining short-term demand trends in JKT?
• Will growth in data centers and AI computing significantly impact long-term LNG demand?
• In light of ongoing tariff negotiations, how much could JKT sign in long-term contracts with the US?

Runzhi Lyu, Asia LNG Analyst

• Global data center development and impact on power demand growth
• How is the new U.S. administration influencing power market policy?
• Where are short- and long-term market forecasts heading?
• What challenges are renewable energy development facing?

Allen Wang, Executive Director

• How much electricity will future datacenters consume?
• What is the impact to APAC power markets?
• Which generation technologies and how they can serve the datacenters?
• How could global trade disruptions affect the scale, cost and timeline of power supply to datacenters?

Neal Won, Principal Research Analyst

• What’s behind the current weakness in China’s LNG demand? When will China ramp up LNG imports again? 
• What will drive gas and LNG demand growth in Southeast Asia?
• What are the infrastructure developments needed in Southeast Asia? 

Xiao Lu, Associate Director, Equity Research/Fixed Income

• Offtake agreements and market willingess to pay - where will the first projects be?
• Hydrogen for power - the impact of South Korean policy on Asia's clean hydrogen demand. 

Anri Nakamura, Principal Research Analyst

Key questions regarding battery economics in 6 major energy storage markets globally, including US, UK, Germany, China, Japan and Australia:

• How has merchant battery revenue streams (energy arbitrage & ancillary services) evolved in the past three years?
• What kind of long-term contracts are offered by governments to ensure power reliability and incentivize energy storage deployment?
• How has cost decline boost the battery energy storage economics?
• What are the expectations on the future battery energy storage revenues?

Anqi Shi, Principal Analyst: Renewables Markets - Energy Transition Sustainability and Services

John Kim, Senior Commercial Specialist, Gas, Power & Climate Solutions

• The latest updates on hydrogen policy and market developments.
• Levelized cost of hydrogen production and shipping

Anri Nakamura, Principal Research Analyst

Youngjin Lee, ESG Business Development Manager

Georgy Eliseev, Lead, Research Analyst

• Lithium prices falling to multiyear lows vs. vested policy interest in security of supply, and the role of disruptive extraction technologies
• Is the DRC export ban a smart or a self-destructive move amid tariff turmoil
• How are Indonesia and the Philippines, the key nickel producers, responding to US tariffs?
• Can tariffs on graphite anode from China support US onshoring

Alice Yu, Lead Analyst

• How are US tariffs likely to disrupt steel supply chains?
• What do we expect from China’s steel production, consumption and exports in 2025?
• Is iron ore heading for an oversupply in coming years; how will prices react?
• What do trade tensions mean for coking coal trade flows? 

Jarek Mlodziejewski, Senior Metal Commercial Specialist

• How will US tariffs affect aluminum demand?
• Where will new supply come from as China approaches the legal aluminum smelter capacity cap?
• Alumina and aluminum outlooks in a challenging landscape
  

Alice Yu, Lead Analyst