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Global gas prices to remain pressured by LNG oversupply in 2019-20: BP

Highlights

Price volatility creating opportunity for gas trading business

Gas production down 5.75% on year in H1

London — Global gas prices will continue to decrease through 2019 and 2020, as the LNG market remains oversupplied, BP's CEO Bob Dudley said Tuesday during the company's results presentation.

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Asian spot prices have fallen in the first half of the year due to slowing demand growth in Northeast Asia, notably in China, he said.

The benchmark JKM Asian LNG spot price dropped as low as $4.263/MMBtu in June from a high of just over $12/MMBtu in September last year, according to S&P Global Platts price assessments.

European gas prices have also fallen sharply since the start of the year on robust supply and warm weather, with the TTF day-ahead price falling as low as Eur9.375/MWh on June 25, compared with almost Eur30/MWh in late September 2018.

Prices will also remain volatile due to global supply/demand conditions, he said, pointing to geopolitical events such as those in the Strait of Hormuz and the US-China trade tensions.

However, trading in both the first and second quarters of this year was strong, CFO Brian Gilvary said, with current volatility creating opportunities for the company's gas trading business.

S&P Global Platts European Gas & LNG Summit | September 23-24, 2019 | Amsterdam

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Revenue from contracts with customers were up 4.9% on year in the first half of the year at $10.61 billion.

Overall BP's gas production fell 5.75% on the year to 220.2 million cu m/day in the first half of the year, despite an increase of production in the US.

BP intends to develop a flexible portfolio with a transition to new energies, "to adapt with the pace of changes," in line with Paris Agreement on environment and climate change.

Gilvary said the company was also maintaining a sharp focus on clean and low-cost gas.

BP will be presenting its transition plan in November.

Asked about the 11.4 million mt/year Tangguh LNG plant project, BP confirmed the recent announcement from the Indonesian regulator SKK Migas that the 3.8 million mt/year Train 3 would be delayed by a year. The start-up is now targeted for Q3 2021.

-- Lucie Roux, lucie.roux@spglobal.com

-- Edited by Jonathan Dart, jonathan.dart@spglobal.com