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US EIA lowers Q1 Henry Hub spot gas price forecast 35 cents to $2.27/MMBtu

New York — The US Energy Information Administration on Tuesday lowered by 35 cents to $2.27/MMBtu its first-quarter 2020 forecast for Henry Hub spot natural gas prices.

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EIA, in its January Short-Term Energy Outlook, also lowered its Q2 Henry Hub forecast 4 cents to $2.30/MMBtu.

The agency raised its gas consumption estimates 0.51 Bcf/d to 105.05 Bcf/d for Q1, but kept its Q2 demand forecast roughly flat, lowering it only 0.01 Bcf/d to 74.7 Bcf/d.

The full-year estimate for 2020 was lowered 0.45 Bcf/d to 86.73 Bcf/d, compared with the prior month's estimate. The agency estimated consumption would decline in 2021, averaging 85.7 Bcf/d.

EIA's gas marketed production estimates for Q1 rose 0.11 Bcf/d to 102.31 Bcf/d, while EIA pared those back 0.20 Bcf/d for Q2. Full-year 2020 estimates were also trimmed 0.27 Bcf/d to average 102.06 for the full-year 2020. The agency estimated 2021 production at 101.6 Bcf/d.