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EIA US coal production, export, consumption forecasts rise for 2021

Highlights

Coal exports projected up 13.6% on year

Coal generation share forecast at 22.4% in 2021

Houston — The US Energy Information Administration forecast coal production of 585 million st in 2021, up 8.6% from 2020 output of almost 540 million st, the EIA said April 6.

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In 2022, the EIA projected output of about 602 million st.

Coal exports for 2021 were projected to total nearly 79 million st, up 13.6% from last year's exports in its Short-Term Energy Outlook. Exports were also at their lowest monthly forecast in four months. Exports in 2022 are projected to be 89 million st.

Power sector consumption was forecast to total 495 million st in 2021, up 13.5% from 2020 consumption and about 514 million st in 2021.

Total US consumption was forecast to be about 539 million st in 2021, up 12.9% from 587 million st in 2020. The EIA 2022 forecast was about 558 million st.

Compared with US coal-powered estimated generation share of 19.9% in 2020, the April EIA report projected coal generation share of 22.4% in 2021 and 22.9% in 2022.

Natural gas generation share for 2021 was projected to be 36.1%, down from 39.2% in 2020. In 2022, gas generation was projected at 34.9%.

The EIA forecast gas 2021 production at 91.4 Bcf/d in April, flat from 2020 production. The 2022 projection was 93.3 Bcf/d. Power sector consumption for 2021 was forecast to be 28.8 Bcf/d, down 9.2% from 2020 consumption, and 27.7 Bcf/d in 2022.