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EIA forecast 2020 coal output declining 16.9% on year: STEO

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EIA forecast 2020 coal output declining 16.9% on year: STEO

Highlights

EIA forecast power consumption below 500 million st

Coal forecast to take 21% of power share in 2020, 2021

Houston — The US coal production is likely to be around 574 million st in 2020, down 16.9% from the estimated 2019 output of 690 million st, the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook reported Wednesday.

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For 2021, the EIA projected output of about 581 million st, down about 6 million st from February's forecast.

Coal exports for 2020 were projected to total 78.1 million st, compared with estimated exports of 92.4 million st in 2019. Exports in 2021 are projected to be 82.8 million st.

The March export forecast decreased from the February forecast by 6.1% and 0.5% for 2020 and 2021, respectively.

Power sector consumption was forecast to total just about 453 million st in 2020, down 16.8% from 2019 consumption, and about 466 million st in 2021.

Total US consumption was forecast to be about 505 million st in 2020, down 15.3% from the 2019 estimate of 596 million st and down about 11 million st from the February projection. The EIA 2021 forecast was about 515 million st.

Compared with US coal-powered estimated generation share of 24% in 2019, the February EIA report projected coal generation share of 21% in both 2020 and 2021.

Natural gas generation share for 2020 was projected to be 39%, up two percentage points from both the 2019 and the 2021 forecasts.

The EIA forecast gas production at 95.3 Bcf/d for 2020 in March, down from 2019 estimated production of about 99 Bcf/d. The 2021 projection was relatively flat month on month at 92.6 Bcf/d. Power sector consumption for 2020 was forecast to be 32.4 Bcf/d, up 4.4% from 2019 consumption, and 30.3 Bcf/d in 2021.