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Brazil's 2021-22 soybean output forecast at record 140.7 million mt: Conab


Output, acreage forecast to rise 2.5% on year

Record exports, domestic crush also expected

Brazil's soybean output for the 2021-22 marketing year (January-December) has been forecast at a record high 140.7 million mt, riding on record acreage of 39.9 million hectares, the country's national agricultural agency Conab said Oct. 7.

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Global supply of the oilseed in 2022 is likely to be ample as a result; Brazil is the leading producer and exporter of soybeans, accounting for more than a third of the world's soybean production.

Conab in its monthly report said it expects La Nina to delay the Brazilian soybean planting season in 2021-22, which typically begins in late September.

La Nina is a weather phenomenon that induces dry conditions in Brazil during soybean sowing season and heavy rains during the crop development stages in subsequent months.

A strong La Nina during last year's soybean planting season in Brazil led to a very slow start to oilseed sowing on extremely dry weather conditions. Almost a month's delay in planting was recorded in most regions during fourth quarter 2020.

Record exports, crush

Brazilian soy exports in 2021-22 are forecast at a record 87.43 million mt, taking into account estimates of global exports and imports, Chinese imports, and Brazil's production and average percentage of exports, Conab said.

The total crush for 2021-22 was forecast at a record high 52.62 million mt -- an increase of almost 6.12 million mt on the year, Conab said. This increase was determined considering an addition of the percentage of mixture to diesel to 13% (B13) in January-February 2022 and 14% (B14) from March to December 2022, it said.

Conab defines the Brazilian soybean marketing year 2021-22 as January-December 2022.