CERAWEEK: Copper prices begin to rally ahead of upcoming supply crunch

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Copper prices surged to fresh record highs at the start of 2026, reflecting mounting concern that demand from electrification and AI is outrunning available supply.

That growth is driven by four main vectors: core economic demand in construction and machinery, energy transition investments in renewables and grids, rapid expansion of AI and data centers, and defense modernization.

On the supply side, primary mined production is expected to peak around 2030 and then decline toward 2040. By then, we could see an annual supply shortfall of about 10 million metric tons, and the imbalance has already caused all-time high copper prices in January of this year.

I’m in Houston attending CERAWeek by S&P Global, and miners here are calling for government partnerships and new investment in mining technology to create a more secure, efficient copper supply chain.

The secretary of the US Department of the Interior said that the US needs to get back into the mining game, and steps are being taken towards that ambitious goal. Recently in mid-March, the US completed a key federal land exchange with Resolution Copper, which has the potential to become one of the largest copper mines in the country.

Without a step-change in mine investment, permitting and processing capacity, copper prices are likely to continue to see upward pressure.