US tariffs redirect Brazilian beef supply, strand US demand

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Even though Brazil is one of the US’ largest beef suppliers, the list of exceptions to the 50% US tariffs on Brazilian imports did NOT include beef. So what does that mean for US demand and Brazilian supply? 

Well, the US Department of Agriculture has reduced its forecasts for beef imports in 2025 and 2026.  

The problem is, there’s already limited domestic supply in the US, and steak prices in the domestic market already spiked in July. That was even before tariffs came into effect in August, so the outlook is even more challenging now.  

The outlook for Brazil looks rosier. The government announced that Brazil will start exporting beef to Indonesia while seeking other new markets.  

Also, China still imports Brazilian beef, but now with more volumes available, Chinese buyers can lower their bids. As a result, Brazilian beef prices have fallen.  

But things could change soon, since cattle processing costs, as well as seasonal demand in China, are expected to rise.