Sulfur scramble: Tight global supply pressures fertilizer markets

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Phosphate fertilizer producers in the Americas are starting to cut their output because of one major factor: there just isn’t enough sulfur.

The Strait of Hormuz closure cut 47% of global sulfur flows in the first half of the year, S&P Global Energy CERA analysts say.

Consumers in the Americas are already feeling the effects.

For example, Brazil, the largest South American importer, brought in 42% less sulfur in the first half of 2026 than in the first half of 2025.

But supply was already tightening even before the Middle East war started in February. 

Amid its war with Ukraine, Russia has ramped up its sulfur imports and banned exports in November 2025.

Now, prices of sulfur – a key feedstock for fertilizer production - have more than doubled from late February, before the war began. 

This has caused phosphate fertilizer prices to rise 23%.

With fertilizer prices rising, what could this mean for agriculture?

CERA analysts say farmers face an “affordability wall,” and fertilizer demand for the spring application has already dropped 20%.

Even so, market players say fertilizer prices aren’t likely to decline soon, as long as sulfur remains stuck behind the Hormuz.