Brazil beef exports surge in H1 2026, but China limits loom

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Brazil's beef exports in the first half of 2026 rose 17% on the year, and China was the top destination, snapping up over half of those exports. 

But here’s where things could change: China will impose a 55% tariff on beef imports from Brazil when shipments exceed annual quotas from 2026 to 2028.

For 2026, China capped Brazil’s quota at 1.1 million metric tons, and Brazil has already shipped 70% of that volume to China in just six months.

With traders warning the quota will likely be hit by August or September, Brazilian exporters are eyeing new markets. 

Meanwhile, prices have been falling since surpassing $7,000/mt in April. 

Brazil is expected to produce 12.2 million metric tons of beef in 2026, down 3.3% on the year, according to S&P Global Energy CERA analysts.

Exports are also projected to slide, with forecasts at 3.9 million metric tons, down 10%.

Exporters say that, as China slows down purchases, the US and Chile are set to play bigger roles as importers.

Whether this will actually happen and whether the volumes will be enough to offset China remains unknown. Another question looming: what effect will this have on prices?