S&P Global Energy
High Impact Wells
Shaping 2025 Trends and 2026 Opportunities
Introduction
The global oil and gas industry in 2025 found itself at a pivotal juncture, navigating a landscape shaped by evolving market dynamics, technological advancements, and shifting strategic priorities.
Despite a continued decline in overall exploration activity, the sector remained steadfast in its commitment to building high-quality portfolios.
Companies continue to focus on efficiency, rapid resource monetization, and targeting high-impact opportunities, reflecting a clear shift from the pursuit of volume to the pursuit of value.
This strategy still does leave opportunities to grow via the drill bit, especially in the form of High Impact Wells (HIWs). 2025 saw high impact drilling take place all over the world as companies continue to hunt for new plays and needle moving discoveries.
In 2025 12 HIWs accounted of over 46% of the annual discovered volumes proving that successful high impact exploration can be hugely rewarding.
Exploration activity: Quality over quantity
In 2025, the total number of new field wildcats (NFWs) drilled globally continued to decline, a trend that has persisted over the past decade. This reduction in activity was not merely a response to market pressures but a deliberate move toward greater capital discipline.
Companies evaluated resources carefully, directing investments to high-return projects and divesting non-core assets.
Advances in seismic imaging, analytics, and drilling technology allowed for more accurate prospecting and higher technical success rates.
By early December 2025, there had been 132 conventional discoveries made in 2025, adding over 8.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent in recoverable resources.
Deepwater wells
Deepwater and Ultra-Deepwater: The core of global discoveries
A defining feature of the year was the dominance of deepwater and ultra-deepwater exploration. Despite representing only 19% of NFWs spudded in 2025, deepwater and ultra-deepwater wells in these challenging environments accounted for approximately 70% of new recoverable resources discovered in 2025, underscoring their central role in global supply growth.
70%
of new recoverable resources discovered were deepwater and ultra-deepwater wells
Deepwater and ultra-deepwater basins offer significant untapped resources, often with good reservoirs and larger remaining prospects than onshore or shallow-water areas.
Advances in drilling technology and remote operations have made these environments more accessible, while government incentives continue to drive investment in these regions.
Basin strategies: From broad horizons to targeted triumphs
Of the 22 High Impact Wells (HIW) spudded in 2025, nearly 65% were drilled in deepwater and ultra-deepwater regions, with a significant concentration in ultra-deepwater areas.
Among all NFWs completed in 2025, ultra-deepwater wells accounted for six of the year’s top 10 discoveries.
62%
of new resources came from the top 10 discoveries
This trend was accompanied by increased interest from Global Integrated Oil Companies (GIOCs), which secured more than 90% of their discovered resources in 2025 from deep and ultra-deepwater frontiers, reflecting a strategic shift toward these high-potential plays.
The effectiveness of impactful drilling was particularly evident, as a relatively small number of discoveries contributed a significant share of new resources, the top 10 discoveries of 2025 delivering 62% of the annual discovered volumes.
Global upstream exploration continued to narrow its focus and leverage technical advancements.
In 2024, NFWs were drilled in 130 basins, half the number of basins with NFW activity at the beginning of the century, and by December 2025, this dropped to 101, with just 17 basins including HIWs.
This decline signals a shift toward prioritizing select, high-potential opportunities, supported by seismic imaging and machine learning to guide investments and reduce risk.
Operators now concentrate capital on top-performing basins, with 45% of discovered hydrocarbon volumes in the past five years coming from only five basins—mainly their deepwater and ultra-deepwater plays.
Regional highlights
Latin America: The Standout Performer
Latin America emerged as the standout region in 2025, delivering 38% of global discovered volumes along with the largest discovery of 2025, Bumerangue 1.
With other key deepwater and ultra-deepwater discoveries in the Santos and Campos basins, Brazil was the primary driver of this performance, where these basins continued to yield world-class discoveries.
38%
of global discovered volumes were in Latin America
Brazil’s regulatory framework and transparent licensing rounds have attracted sustained investment, while fiscal terms remain competitive. In comparison it was a quieter year for the Guyana-Suriname Basin where exploration yielded additional reserves but not to the same extent as seen in recent years.
Renewed regional interest in underexplored plays and remaining frontiers
Interest in remaining frontier and deepwater exploration continued to accelerate, especially in West Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean. Angola and Namibia saw sustained investment with HIWs targeting unexplored deepwater zones, inspired by recent success in Cretaceous plays of Sub-Saharan Africa and, more broadly, across the South Atlantic margin. Meanwhile, Egypt and Cyprus remained central to gas exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean, with recent significant gas discoveries positioning the region as a critical supply source for both regional and European markets, underscoring the growing importance of gas.
In the Asia-Pacific region, deepwater exploration gained momentum along with the search for stratigraphically deeper plays in the syn-rift sections. National oil companies in the region prioritized opening new frontiers and deepwater exploration to offset declining production from mature fields, while collaboration with international partners facilitated access to technology and capital.
Several governments introduced regulatory reforms to attract investment, streamline permitting, and improve fiscal terms for deepwater projects, signaling a commitment to sustaining exploration activity and resource replacement from these frontiers.
Other highlights: Volume versus value
The most valuable discoveries aren't always the largest, since many factors—like hydrocarbon type and quality, fiscal conditions, and geographic location—affect a field’s worth.
So, it's notable that the Wolin East find in Poland was the highest-value discovery in 2025. Norway also saw success, with new finds in its mature basin continuing to generate significant returns.
Meanwhile, investment remained strong in the US Gulf of Mexico, driven by infrastructure-led exploration, linking new projects to existing facilities to get the most out of current assets, while Canada’s offshore activity stayed quiet.
In the Middle East, there were substantial additions to existing fields, showing that companies are boosting value not only through new discoveries but also by enhancing established assets.
Industry trends
Looking Ahead: 2026 Industry trends shaping exploration portfolios
Reserves replenishment: The clock is ticking
Oil and gas companies are facing a persistent reserves replacement challenge, as organic additions have failed to keep pace with production levels. Companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. have met reserves replacement metrics through acquisitions, while select European peers deliver it via the traditional organic route.
However, besides the success of a select group of companies, reserves replacement remains a challenge for the industry. The scarcity of quality merger and acquisition (M&A) opportunities in conventional exploration and production means that exploration is regaining strategic importance, despite its higher risk and cost profile—particularly in deepwater and ultra-deepwater settings.
Despite these challenges, companies are realizing they need to intensify their efforts in traditional exploration to build a resilient portfolio capable of delivering production growth.
Host governments: Shape it or lose it
As commodity prices decline, the ability of governments to provide a favorable above-ground environment becomes critical for attracting and retaining oil and gas investment. Investors seek the “sweet spot” where regulatory stability, fiscal predictability, and low above-ground risk align with strong subsurface potential.
In periods of price pressure, countries that offer clear legal frameworks, efficient permitting, and infrastructure support can offset market uncertainty and maintain competitiveness. Conversely, jurisdictions with high above-ground risk and limited resource potential are the least attractive, as they compound operational challenges and erode returns.
With 40 countries expected to host licensing rounds in 2026, governments that are responsive to investors’ needs will be in the game to attract investor risk capital.
Rig Day Rates: Prices remain elevated
With a significant portion of high-impact wells for 2026 scheduled to be in deepwater and ultra-deepwater settings, understanding the outlook for midwater rigs (semi-submersible) and deepwater/ultra-deepwater rigs (drillships) is imperative.
In 2026, rig day rates are expected to remain elevated, with utilization remaining high in key markets such as South America, where drillship utilization will be near 100%. Looking further ahead, we expect the market to continue tightening, and day rates may rise in 2027 depending on new demand.
For 2026, however, the cost environment will largely follow the 2025 cost trend line and will remain conducive for ongoing exploration activities for operators in established basin positions.
Exploration outlook
Looking Ahead: 2026 Exploration Activity Outlook
A new wave of High-Impact Wells
In 2026, more than 37 HIWs are scheduled for drilling globally, targeting largely untapped frontier and deepwater areas—mainly in Latin America, Africa, and Asia-Pacific. Deepwater projects will make up about two-thirds of activity.
The timing depends on operational readiness, regulatory approval, and equipment availability, underscoring the need for strong project management and stakeholder coordination.
Notable wells and regions to watch
Several notable wells and regions are expected to shape the exploration landscape in 2026. In the Colombian Basin, the long-awaited spudding of Komodo 1, at a record-setting water depth of 3,920 meters, could spud, surpassing Angola’s Ondjaba 1 as the world’s deepest-water well.
In the Eastern Mediterranean, Alphee 1, and the Krum 1 well in the Bulgarian Black Sea are expected to sustain momentum following recent gas discoveries, highlighting the region’s substantial underexplored deepwater potential.
3,920 meters
record-setting water depth of Komodo 1, in the Colombian Basin
After a quiet year in Guyana, several HIWs will return to this prolific basin, while BP targets the Tupinamba block adjacent to the Bumerangue block in Brazil’s Santos Basin.
In Asia-Pacific, new HIWs will test new frontiers and emerging deepwater plays and support resource replacement efforts.
Conclusion
Looking ahead, the exploration sector is moving towards fewer but higher-quality opportunities, with increased emphasis on advanced technology and a balanced strategy across different types of exploration.
Key areas such as deepwater, LNG, and advantaged reserves have become integral, allowing firms to strengthen their portfolios in an evolving energy market. The year 2026 is expected to be crucial, potentially bringing major discoveries and further changes in exploration tactics.
The industry's success in adapting, innovating, and collaborating will shape its ability to meet global energy needs and provide value to stakeholders in the coming years.
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