Crude Oil

November 05, 2026

Quagmire: Scenario planning a case for lasting oil markets disruption

HIGHLIGHTS

Strait of Hormuz conflict reshapes trade

Regional security trumps global oil flows

Experts model years-long market disruption

Scenario planning allows investors and executives to prepare for situations outside of their base-case expectations. S&P Global Energy developed a new case called "Quagmire" that assumes conflict around the Strait of Hormuz becomes a permanent geopolitical feature and trade flows fragment in favor of regional energy security.

Oil markets experts Louise Vertz and Sandra Abdallah join hosts Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys to walk us through the assumptions in S&P Global Energy's "Quagmire" scenario and explain what lasting changes could be in store for oil markets if disruption turns from months into years.

Learn more about S&P Global Energy coverage at: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en

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