Hormuz Oct crossings at 3-month high despite attacks, Red Sea traffic also rises

Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic rose to its highest monthly level since July in October, supported by stronger dry-bulk and LNG movements despite a decline in VLCC traffic and mounting regional threats, S&P Global Commodities at Sea data showed Nov. 2.

The rise came amid an "increasingly volatile" operating environment at Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, with "reported projectile strikes, vessel fires and other security incidents" throughout October, CAS said.

"In the month of October, we registered 30 attacks, if I remember correctly, which is one of the highest we have," International Maritime Organization Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez told journalists on Nov. 2.

While Iranian aerial attacks continue to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, mine collision incidents also remain a threat to vessels traversing the chokepoint, as "there's no confirmation that there are not mines in the region," Dominguez added.

"I cannot guarantee that it's safe. That's why we are not recommending anyone to go through the Strait of Hormuz, and I keep saying for the ships to stay away from it," Dominguez said during a press conference.

Despite elevated security risks over the month, observed and assumed Hormuz traffic totaled 750 transits in October, up from 749 in September, as VLCC traffic fell to 156 transits in October from 184 the previous month, but the declines in crude tanker transits were more than offset by other vessel classes, according to the CAS report.

Bulk carrier traffic climbed to 149 transits, the highest since June, according to CAS. LNG carrier crossings, which fell steeply since Qatar LNG production units suffered damage at the start of the Iran war, also climbed, reaching 32 transits, or their highest since the start of the war.

LPG tanker traffic fell month over month to 36 transits from 40 on weaker inbound activity, while outbound movements were steady, CAS reported.

Daily crossings over the previous three days totaled 24 transits on Oct. 30, 28 transits on Oct. 31, before easing to 17 crossings on Nov. 1, according to CAS.

Prominent outbound crude movements between Oct. 30 and Nov. 1 included Bahri VLCCs Lawhah, Aslaf, Majra and Platinum Shine, as well as Sinokor-operated Jamaica Prosperity, Vietnam Prosperity and Colombia Prosperity, CAS reported. Also crossing outbound were Suezmax tankers Tilos I, Ottoman Equity and Cronus, all of which are carrying Gulf crude to India.

Headed inbound the strait were Bahri VLCCs Kassab and Gold Shine, Trafigura-linked Kiku and ADNOC's Al Adlah, according to CAS assessments. Dynacom-operated Aframax Astypalea also appeared to have entered the Gulf for the first time since March.

Three LPG tanker transits were recorded from Oct. 30 through Nov. 1, all outbound, CAS reported. Bahri-operated Gas Aqua exited after loading ammonia at Ras Al Khair, while Iranian-linked VLGC Xavia moved out of the Gulf and later positioned near Sohar ahead of an understood ship-to-ship transfer.

The Iran-linked Ocean Unity crossed outbound Nov. 1 after remaining offline since mid-July and appeared to be in ballast, according to CAS, which has noted that "[the tanker's] cargo status may become clearer as the voyage progresses."

Five vessels assessed to have crossed Hormuz during the three-day period were listed on the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority's blacklist, according to the authority's website. The Iranian authority had listed 240 vessels as violating its Strait of Hormuz transit guidelines and previously threatened non-compliant vessels with fines, seizure or confiscation.

In the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab traffic rose to 1,196 transits in October from 1,154 in September, while tanker movements were stable at 408 versus 404, CAS reported. Northbound traffic increased to 647 transits, about 54% of the monthly total, from 578 in September.

Saudi-linked Bab al-Mandab traffic continued to decline sharply, as observed by CAS, falling to 21 transits in October from 52 in September, according to the report.