Black Sea tanker rates jump on ship attacks, but outlook remains uncertain

Tanker rates in the Black Sea have increased significantly after Ukraine and Caspian Pipeline Consortium reported seven ship attacks in recent days, but further gains could depend on whether security conditions keep worsening and lucrative employment opportunities exist in other regions, according to brokers and analysts.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the Suezmax rate for transporting 135,000 metric tons of Kazakh crude from the CPC terminal at Russia's Novorossiisk port to the Mediterranean at $35.19/mt July 20, up from $31.88/mt July 16.

The Suezmax rate for shipping 140,000 mt of Russian crude from Novorossiisk to India's western coast surged to $78.57/mt from $68.57/mt in the same period, according to Platts.

Several Europe-based brokers said tanker owners are adding risk premiums to freight rates in the Black Sea, where at least six Suezmax and one Aframax tankers were recently attacked by drones when engaged in both Russian and non-Russian trades.

CPC said the Nordic Zenith was struck on July 17, the Asia and the Nissos Ios on July 19, and the Nelsa on July 20, and confirmed that most of them were hit during loading operations at its terminal.

Separately, the Security Service of Ukraine said in a Telegram post July 20 that the Louis 1, the Banda, and the Avero were attacked in the past week as part of its drone campaign against alleged Russian energy assets.

Diverse profiles

The UK and the EU sanctioned the Nelsa, previously named Fast Kathy, for alleged illicit Russian trades in 2024 and 2025, respectively. The other ships were not sanctioned by Western authorities, though two of them were sanctioned by Ukraine.

"Heightened security risks in the Black Sea should increase owners' risk assessments and could support a higher freight premium," said Fotios Katsoulas, tanker research director at S&P Global Energy CERA.

"This could come through higher freight requirements from owners, increased war-risk insurance costs, or a reduced pool of willing tonnage."

The additional war risk premium for shipping crude reached $2.1 per barrel July 20, up from $2/b on July 16, according to Platts assessments.

"Whether a meaningful and sustained freight premium develops will depend on the frequency of attacks and whether they begin to materially affect vessel availability or loading programs," Katsoulas added.

Svetlana Lobaciova, principal analyst at Gibson Shipbrokers, said tanker owners might only be able to hike rates further for CPC loadings if earning opportunities are strong enough in West Africa and the US Gulf to draw tonnage away from the Black Sea.

Time-charter-equivalent earnings for a non-scrubber, non-eco Suezmax on the Novorossiisk-Trieste route amounted to $210,774/d on July 20, compared with the Global Suezmax Index at $158,111/d, according to Platts assessments.

"The risks are even more heightened now, but it is unclear whether there is scope for further increases in the premium for CPC loads," Lobaciova told Platts.