Russian October crude exports fall 36.6% on month despite US sanctions waiver

Total Russian crude exports were 2.794 million barrels/day in October, down 36.6% on the month in the face of plummeting shipments to India but with some US sanctions relief and increased Chinese buying.

The overall volumes were down 30% from October 2025.

A steep month-over-month reduction in shipments destined for India was largely triggered by increased Chinese procurement, which constrained the availability of Russian barrels for Indian buyers, analysts at S&P Global Commodities at Sea said on Nov. 5.

Exports to China reached 1.571 million b/d, up 20% month on month and up 42.9% year on year, CAS data showed. Shipments to India fell to 692,000 b/d, down 67% from September and down 62.1% from a year earlier, accounting for most of the overall decline, the data showed.

President Trump on Oct. 16 waived the newly proposed tariffs linked to Russian sanctions and restrictions, which had been enacted a month earlier.

"While the Act itself remains legally active, the suspension of its most penalizing measures removes the immediate threat of sanctions and financial risks for major buyers like India and China," CAS analysts said Nov. 5.

Volumes recorded for Far East ship-to-ship transfers stood at 183,000 b/d in October, down 50.3% month on month and down 19% year on year, CAS data showed. There were no exports to Singapore in October, compared with 88,000 b/d in September and 239,000 b/d in October 2025, the data showed.

Urals crude on a FOB basis at Primorsk traded at an average discount of $30.81/b to Dated Brent in October, data from Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, showed. The discount has since fallen to $18.62/b on Nov. 10, against a five-year average of $21.26/b.

Product exports rise

Russian refined oil product exports averaged 1.080 million b/d in October, up 16.1% on the month but down 42.8% on the year, CAS data showed.

"This export growth occurred despite continuing drone attacks on Russia's downstream facilities," CAS analysts said on Oct. 23.

US President Donald Trump announced a diesel supply agreement with Russia on Oct. 9. Under the terms of this deal, Russia committed to an immediate supply of 300,000 metric tons of diesel, to be followed by 500,000 mt in November and an additional 1 million mt at a later date. This diplomatic agreement prompted a rapid regulatory shift in Russia, with the Russian government lifting its self-imposed diesel export ban on Oct. 10.

The export volumes agreed with Trump are unlikely to pose any particular difficulties for Russia, Sergey Vakulenko, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said Oct. 13 on the organization's website.

"The easiest solution for the Russian authorities would be to simply formalize the volumes still being exported in spite of the current ban," Vakulenko said.

The US received 33,774 b/d in October, compared to nothing in September and in the previous year, CAS data showed.

While diesel export restrictions have been lifted, the export bans on gasoline and jet remain in place, with these bans structured to expire on Jan. 31, 2027, and Nov. 30, 2026, respectively.

Russia remains reliant on external refined product imports to sustain its domestic balance, the CAS analysts said in their Oct. 23 note. Since Aug. 1, CAS has tracked more than 6.6 million barrels of refined products, principally gasoline and jet/kerosene, that Russia procured from suppliers in India, Morocco, and Turkey, the analysts said.

Russian exports to China in October were 202,255 b/d, up 25.3% on the month but down 8.7% on the year, CAS data showed. Shipments to Brazil reached 62,031 b/d, up 178.4% month on month and up 26.6% year on year, while exports to Egypt averaged 133,280 b/d, up 84.9% on the month but down 6.5% on the year, CAS data showed.

Singapore was the largest destination, taking 256,122 b/d, up 36.1% on the month and 155.3% on the year, CAS data showed. Turkey received 139,190 b/d, up 102.9% month on month but down 68.6% year on year, the data showed.