Global air passenger demand weakens in Sept amid higher jet fuel prices

Global air passenger demand–measured in revenue passenger kilometers–fell 0.5% year over year in September 2026, according to the latest data from the International Air Transport Association, released late Oct. 30, driven by weak traffic in the Middle East as conflict within the region persists, while elevated jet fuel prices continue to curtail travel demand.

Apart from the marginal 0.3% growth in July, global air passenger demand has declined year over year since April, when RPK fell for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Middle Eastern airlines' traffic fell 8% over the period, marking a slight improvement from an annual contraction of 14.6% in August. Excluding Middle Eastern figures, however, global RPK rose 0.3% year over year in September, supported by stronger demand for international travel, IATA said in its statement.

European airlines' RPK inched up 0.3% year over year, with growth in international passengers offsetting a decline in domestic traffic.

Meanwhile, RPK across Asia-Pacific carriers increased 0.5% year over year, with both domestic and international traffic rising marginally over the period. The increase came despite traffic on routes within Asia falling 0.9%, according to IATA.

According to aviation statistics company OAG, low-cost carriers in Asia have faced greater pressure to reduce capacity, particularly on short, price-sensitive routes across Southeast Asia and the broader Asia-Pacific region.

"If geopolitical disruption keeps fuel prices elevated, filed schedules may change through winter, with capacity reductions possible within Southeast Asia and on short-haul across the wider Asia Pacific region," Diedre Fulton from OAG said in an Oct. 28 analysis.

"Air traffic demand fell 0.5% in September, reflecting weaknesses in the Middle East and North America. Nevertheless, this was an improvement from August, with a welcome return to growth in most international markets. These patterns have more-or-less repeated themselves throughout much of the year, and we can expect this to continue amid geopolitical uncertainty and volatile fuel prices," said IATA's Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist, Marie Owens Thomsen.

Looking ahead, global scheduled seat capacity is expected to remain above 2025 levels in October and November, up 0.6% and 1.5%, respectively.

"While this points to continued growth at the global level, the outlook remains uneven across regions," the statement said.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the FOB Singapore jet fuel/kerosene outright price at an average of $169.53/b in September, widening from $148.43/b in August and $139.22/b in July. Prior to the war in the Middle East this year, the benchmark averaged $89.03/b in February and $83.32/b in January.