Shipowners warn fuel transition could slip beyond 2030 as methanol demand remains uncertain

Regulatory uncertainty and limited shipbuilding capacity could delay the wider adoption of alternative marine fuels beyond 2030, shipping executives said Oct. 20, while orders for methanol-capable vessels may not translate directly into demand for the fuel.

Speaking at the tenth Annual International Shipping Forum in Pudong, Shanghai, Safe Bulkers president Loukas Barmparis said ambiguity over decarbonization rules and heavily booked shipyards would delay the transition, pointing to a period after 2030 toward 2035.

He described maritime decarbonization as "somehow stalled," with progress currently concentrated on improving the energy efficiency of existing ships and newer vessel designs.

Uncertainty over the International Maritime Organization's decisions had held back ordering before prompting owners to choose conventional vessels, said Dario Bocchetti, Grimaldi Group's head of energy-saving, research and design, and ship design.

Similarly, Pacific Carriers Limited CEO and managing director Hor Weng Yew said owners could focus on improving fuel efficiency while weighing longer-term fuel decisions.

"Making an irreversible commitment when the fuel pathways, infrastructure, and economics are still evolving... I think that's tough," Hor said.

However, owners could retrofit ships and work with charterers to improve efficiency without waiting for a final fuel pathway, he said. "That's something shipowners can very well do, very much in their control."

Orders may not translate to demand

Meanwhile, dual-fuel vessels, such as new methanol-capable orders, may not ensure that a new ship will operate entirely on methanol, Bocchetti added.

Fuel costs and logistics would determine actual use, while producers need demand from more than a handful of owners to support supply growth. "Nevertheless, we have to start it; otherwise, we will never do it," he said.

DNV said more than 294 methanol-capable vessels were on order globally as of August 2026, making methanol the second-largest alternative-fuel technology in the orderbook after LNG, based on its latest Maritime Forecast to 2050, released in August. The figure stood at 991 for LNG-capable vessels, 42 ammonia-capable, and 25 hydrogen-capable vessels.

The forecast puts shipping's low-greenhouse-gas fuel demand, covering low-GHG fuels collectively, at 4 million–22 million mt of oil equivalent in 2030, depending on regulatory outcomes. DNV noted that scaling production depends on confidence that demand will materialize. It also said the existing fleet and orderbook would largely determine which fuels shipping can consume in 2030.

Marine Plus president and CEO Dimitris Vranopoulos said fuel supply and trading patterns would continue to constrain owners' investment in dual-fuel vessels. "Even post-2030, it will be quite difficult and challenging," Vranopoulos said, adding that "everything has to be synchronized."

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed Singapore low-carbon methanol at $1,040/mt Oct. 19, unchanged from the prior session, while low-carbon methanol FOB Shanghai was also assessed stable day over day at $815/mt on thin trade.